Dr Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Publications

• Peer reviewed
• Current and future global climate impacts resulting from COVID-19 Piers M. Forster, Harriet I. Forster, Mat J. Evans, Matthew J. Gidden, Chris D. Jones, Christoph A. Keller, Robin D. Lamboll, Corinne Le Quéré, Joeri Rogelj, Deborah Rosen, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Thomas B. Richardson, Christopher J. Smith, Steven T. Turnock, Nature Climate Change, (2020)
• Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals Andreas Geiges, Alexander Nauels, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, William Hare, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Earth System Dynamics, (2020)
• Fair-share carbon dioxide removal increases major emitter responsibility Claire Fyson, Susanne Baur, Matthew Gidden, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Nature Climate Change, (2020)
• Robust predictors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity identified with causal effect networks Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Peter Pfleiderer, Tobias Geiger, Marlene Kretschmer, Weather and Climate Dynamics, (2020)
• Multi-method evidence for when and how climate-related disasters contribute to armed conflict risk Tobias Ide, Michael Brzoska, Jonathan F. Donges, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Global Environmental Change, (2020)

• Inconsistencies when applying novel metrics for emissions accounting to the Paris agreement Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alexander Nauels, Michiel Schaeffer, William Hare, Joeri Rogelj, Environmental Research Letters, (2019)
• Recommended temperature metrics for carbon budget estimates, model evaluation and climate policy Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Joeri Rogelj, Martin B. Stolpe, H. Damon Matthews, Peter Pfleiderer, Nathan P. Gillett , Nature Geoscience, (2019)
• Increasing risks of apple tree frost damage under climate change Peter Pfleiderer, Inga Menke, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner , Climatic Change, (2019)
• Unintentional unfairness when applying new greenhouse gas emissions metrics at country level Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Environmental Research Letters, (2019)
• Attributing long-term sea-level rise to Paris Agreement emission pledges Alexander Nauels, Johannes Gütschow, Matthias Mengel, Malte Meinshausen, Peter U. Clark, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), (2019)
• Governance in socioeconomic pathways and its role for future adaptive capacity Marina Andrijevic, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Raya Muttarak, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner , Nature Sustainability, (2019)
• Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals Andreas Geiges, Paola Yanguas Parra, Marina Andrijevic, Bill Hare, Alex Nauels, Peter Pfleiderer, Michiel Schaeffer, Carl Schleussner, Earth System Dynamics, (2019)
• Boreal summer weather becomes more persistent in a warmer world Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Kai Kornhuber & Dim Coumou, Nature Climate Change, (2019)
• Water availability in Pakistan from Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalayan watersheds at 1.5°C and 2°C Paris Agreement targets Shabeh ul Hasson, Fahad Saeed, Jürgen Böhner, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Advances in Water Resources, (2019)
• 1.5°C Hotspots: Climate Hazards, Vulnerabilities, and Impacts Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Delphine Deryng, Sarah D'haen, William Hare, Tabea Lissner, Mouhamed Ly, Alexander Nauels, Melinda Noblet, Peter Pfleiderer, Patrick Pringle, Martin Rokitzki, Fahad Saeed, Michiel Schaeffer, Olivia Serdeczny, Adelle Thomas, Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Vol. 43:135-163, doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-102017-025835, (2018)
• Temperature-related mortality impacts under and beyond Paris Agreement climate change scenarios Vicedo-Cabrera, A.M., Guo, Y., Sera, F. et al., Climatic Change, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2274-3, (2018)
• The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming Seneviratne S I, Rogelj J, Séférian R, Wartenburger R, Allen M R, Cain M, Millar R J, Ebi K L, Ellis N, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Payne A J, Schleussner C, Tschakert P and Warren R F, Nature, 558 41–9, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4, (2018)
• Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C Karnauskas, K.B., Schleussner, CF., Donnelly, J.P., Anchukaitis, K.J., Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1331-9, (2018)
• Global mean temperature indicators linked to warming levels avoiding climate risks Pfleiderer, P., Schleussner, C-F, Mengel, M., Rogelj, R, Environmental Research Letters, http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aac319, (2018)
• Crop productivity changes in 1.5° C and 2° C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty Schleussner, C.F., Deryng, D., Müller, C., Elliott, J., Saeed, F., Folberth, C., Liu, W., Wang, X., Pugh, T.A., Thiery, W. and Seneviratne, S.I., Environmental Research Letters , 13(6), p.064007, (2018)
• Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming Petra Döll, Tim Trautmann, Dieter Gerten, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sebastian Ostberg, Fahad Saaed, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Environmental Research Letters, 13 (4) 044038, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/aab792, (2018)
• Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C Sonia I. Seneviratne, Richard Wartenburger, Benoit P. Guillod, Annette L. Hirsch, Martha M. Vogel, Victor Brovkin, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Nathalie Schaller, Lena Boysen, Katherine V. Calvin, Jonathan Doelman, Peter Greve, Petr Havlik, Florian Humpenöder, Tamas Krisztin, Daniel Mitchell, Alexander Popp, Keywan Riahi, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jana Sillmann, Elke Stehfest, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 2018 376 20160450, DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0450, (2018)
• Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, John Antle, Joshua Elliott, Muhammad Ashfaq, Ashfaq Ahmad Chatta, Frank Ewert, Christian Folberth, Ibrahima Hathie, Petr Havlik, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Dilys S. MacCarthy, Daniel Mason-D'Croz, Erik Mencos Contreras, Christoph Müller, Ignacio Perez-Dominguez, Meridel Phillips, Cheryl Porter, Rubi M. Raymundo, Ronald D. Sands, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Roberto O. Valdivia, Hugo Valin, Keith Wiebe, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A , 2018 376 20160455, DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2016.0455, (2018)
• Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5° C and 2° C Saeed, Fahad, Ingo Bethke, Erich M. Fischer, Stephanie Legutke, Hideo Shiogama, Daithi Stone, and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Environmental Research Letters, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aab797, (2018)
• Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna Babacar Faye, Heidi Webber, Jesse B Naab, Dilys S MacCarthy, Myriam Adam, Frank Ewert, John P A Lamers, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alex Ruane, Ursula Gessner, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Ken Boote, Vakhtang Shelia, Fahad Saeed, Dominik Wisser, Sofia Hadir, Patrick Laux and Thomas Gaiser, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 13, Number 3, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaab40, (2018)
• Committed sea-level rise under the Paris Agreement and the legacy of delayed mitigation action Matthias Mengel, Alexander Nauels, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Nature Communications , DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-02985-8, (2018)
• Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions Samset BH, Sand M, Smith CJ, Bauer SE, Forster PM, Fuglestvedt, J. S., Osprey, S., Schleussner, C.-F, Geophysical Research Letters, 45(2):1020–29, DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076079, (2018)
• Linking sea level rise and socioeconomic indicators under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Alexander Nauels, Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Malte Meinshausen and Matthias Mengel, Environmental Research Letters , Volume 12, Number 11, doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa92b6, (2017)
• Getting it right matters – temperature goal interpretations in geoscience research Joeri Rogelj, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, William Hare, Geophysical Research Letters, 44, doi: 10.1002/2017GL075612, (2017)
• Deforestation effects on Amazon forest resilience Zemp, D. C., C.-F. Schleussner, H. M. J. Barbosa, and A. Rammig, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, doi:10.1002/2017GL072955, (2017)
• In the observational record half a degree matters Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Peter Pfleiderer & Erich M. Fischer , Nature Climate Change, 7, 460–462 (2017), doi:10.1038/nclimate3320, (2017)
• Self-amplified Amazon forest loss due to vegetation-atmosphere feedbacks Zemp, D. C., Schleussner, C.-F., Barbosa, H. M. J., Hirota, M., Montade, V., Sampaio, G., Staal, A., Wang-Erlandsson, L. and Rammig, A., Nature Communications , 8, 14681, doi:10.1038/ncomms14681, (2017)
• Half a degree additional warming , prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design Mitchell, D. et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 571-583, doi:10.5194/gmd-10-571-2017, (2017)
• Characterizing half-a-degree difference: a review of methods for identifying regional climate responses to global warming targets James, R., Washington, R., Schleussner, C.-F., Rogelj, J. & Conway, D., Wiley Interdiscip. Rev. Clim. Chang. , e457, doi:10.1002/wcc.457, (2017)
• Co-evolutionary behaviour selection in adaptive social networks predicts clustered marginalization of minorities C. F. Schleussner, J.F. Donges, D.A. Engemann, and A. Levermann, Scientific Reports , 6, Article number: 30790 , doi:10.1038/srep30790, (2016)
• Clustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure Schleussner, C.-F., Donges, J. F., Engemann, D. A. & Levermann, A., Sci. Rep. , 6:30790, 1–16, doi:10.1038/srep30790, (2016)
• Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jonathan F. Dongesa, Reik V. Donnera and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 113 (33), 9216–9221, doi:10.1073/pnas.1601611113, (2016)
• Science and policy characteristics of the Paris Agreement temperature goal Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Joeri Rogelj, Michiel Schaeffer, Tabea Lissner, Rachel Licker, Erich M. Fischer, Reto Knutti, Anders Levermann, Katja Frieler & William Hare, Nature Climate Change Perspective, 6, 827–835 , doi:10.1038/nclimate3096, (2016)
• Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Tabea K. Lissner, Erich M. Fischer, Jan Wohland, Mahé Perrette, Antonius Golly, Joeri Rogelj, Katelin Childers, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler, Matthias Mengel, William Hare, and Michiel Schaeffer, Earth System Dynamics, 7, 327-351, doi:10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, (2016)
• Piecing Together the Adaptation Puzzle for Small Island States Lissner, T.K., Schleussner, C.F., Serdeczny, O., Baarsch, F., Schaeffer, M., and Hare, B. , in Climate Change Adaptation in Pacific Countries: Fostering Resilience and Improving the Quality of Life, ed. by Walter Leal Filho (Berlin: Springer), pp. 1–15., (2016)
• Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development Reyer CPO, IM Otto, S Adams, T Albrecht, F Baarsch, M Cartsburg, D Coumou, A Eden, E Ludi, R Marcus, M Mengel, B Mosello, A Robinson,C. F. Schleussner, O Serdeczny, J Stagl (2015)
• Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C C. F. Schleussner, T. K. Lissner, E. M. Fischer, J. Wohland, M. Perrette, A. Golly, J. Rogelj, K. Childers, J. Schewe, K. Frieler, M. Mengel, W. Hare, and M. Schaeffer , Earth System Dynamics, 7, 327–351, doi:10.5194/esd-7-327-2016, (2015)
• Event coincidence analysis for quantifying statistical interrelationships between event time series: on the role of flood events as possible triggers of epidemic outbreaks J.F. Donges, C. F. Schleussner, J.F. Siegmund, and R.V. Donner , The European Physical Journal Special Topics, 225: 471, https://link.springer.com/article/10.1140/epjst/e2015-50233-y, (2015)
• Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development Reyer CPO, S Adams, T Albrecht, F Baarsch, A Boit, N Canales Trujillo, M Cartsburg, D Coumou, A Eden, E Fernandes, F Langerwisch, R Marcus, M Mengel, D Mira-Salama, M Perette, P Pereznieto, A Rammig, J Reinhardt, A Robinson, M Rocha, B Sakschewski, M Schaeffer, C. F. Schleussner, O Serdeczny, K Thonicke , Reg Environ Change, doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0854-6, (2015)
• A volcanically triggered regime shift in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean as a possible origin of the Little Ice Age C. F. Schleussner , G. Feulner (2013)
• Enhanced Atlantic subpolar gyre variability through baroclinic threshold in a coarse resolution model M.Mengel, A.Levermann, C. F. Schleussner , A. Born (2012)
• Coherent two-dimensional ultraviolet spectroscopy in fully noncollinear geometry Selig, U., Schleussner, C.F., Foerster, M., Langhojer, F., Nuernberger, P., Brixner, T.

• Briefing papers
• 2 steps down the debt spiral: COVID-19 and tropical cyclones severely limit the fiscal space of many Small Island Developing States Katharina Lehmann-Uschner, Thessa Beck, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2020)
• Scenarios science needed in UNFCCC periodic review Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Claire Fyson, Nature Climate Change, (2020)
• New models, old message: deep emission cuts in next decade are key Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Susanne Baur, Alexander Nauels (2020)
• The dangers of blue carbon offsets: from hot air to hot water? Claire Fyson, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Bill Hare (2019)
• A reminder for the 'Blue COP' - limiting warming to 1.5°C crucial for protecting oceans and ocean services Alexander Nauels, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2019)

• Greenhouse gas accounting metrics under the Paris Agreement (2019)
• Towards a solid science base: loss and damage in the IPCC special reports Emily Theokritoff, Claire Fyson, Adelle Thomas, Olivia Serdeczny, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2019)
• Why geoengineering is not a solution to the climate problem Fahad Saeed, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, William Hare (2018)
• HAPPI DE 1.5C Project Carl-Friedrich Schleußner, Fahad Saeed, Alexander Nauels, Tim Trautmann, Kevin Sieck, Juliane Petersen, Stephanie Legutke (2018)
• How do we limit warming to 1.5°C: informing the Talanoa Dialogue question, “How do we get there?” (2018)
• New Zealand’s Zero Carbon Bill – getting the Paris Agreement right Bill Hare, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michiel Schaeffer, Alexander Nauels (2018)
• Carbon budgets for the 1.5°C limit Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Martin Stolpe, Peter Pfleiderer, Quentin Lejeune, Bill Hare (2018)
• Keeping up with the renewable revolution - updating the NDCs Climate Analytics (2018)
• Tropical Cyclones: Impacts, the link to Climate Change and Adaptation Adelle Thomas, Patrick Pringle, Peter Pfleiderer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2017)
• Briefing Note on the assessment “Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: The case of 1.5°C and 2°C” Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2015)
• Briefing note on the Report on the Structured Expert Dialogue on the 2013-2015 Review Bill Hare, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2015)
• Is it possible to return warming to below 1.5°C within this century? Hare, Bill, Schaeffer Michiel, Serdeczny Olivia, and Schleussner Carl-Friedrich (2014)

• Reports
• ZERO IN on the remaining carbon budget and decadal warming rates Alexander Nauels (Climate Analytics), Debbie Rosen (University of Leeds), Thorsten Mauritsen (Stockholm University), Amanda Maycock (University of Leeds), Christine McKenna (University of Leeds), Joeri Rogelj (Imperial College London), Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (Climate Analytics), Ela Smith (Climate Analytics), Chris Smith (University of Leeds), Piers Forster (University of Leeds) (2019)
• Global climate change impacts on children Inga Menke, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2019)
• A 1.5°C Compatible Carbon Budget for Queensland Bill Hare, Ursula Fuentes, Fabio Sferra, Michiel Schaefer, Carl Schleussner, Anna Chapman (2019)
• Decarbonising South Asia and South East Asia Ursula Fuentes Hutfilter, Paola Yanguas Parra, Anne Zimmer, Andrzej Ancygier, Fahad Saeed, Robert Brecha, Bill Hare, Jessie Granadillos, Tina Aboumahboub, Gaurav Ganti, Ilsa Kelischek, Raghuveer Vyas, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Michiel Schaeffer (2019)
• The Low Carbon Monitor Eds. Michiel Schaeffer, Marcia Rocha, Matthew McKinnon (2016)

• Implications of the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement for climate policy and decarbonisation Bill Hare, Niklas Roming, Michiel Schaeffer, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner (2016)
• Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Bill Hare, Olivia Serdeczny, Michiel Schaeffer, Sophie Adams, Florent Baarsch, Susanne Schwan, Dim Coumou, Alexander Robinson, Marion Vieweg, Franziska Piontek, Reik Donner, Jakob Runge, Kira Rehfeld, Joeri Rogelj, Mahé Perette, Arathy Menon, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Alberte Bondeau, Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins, Jacob Schewe, Katja Frieler, Lila Warszawski, Marcia Rocha. (2013)

• Climate Action Tracker Reports and Updates
• Warning of climate science - again - written in Doha sand Niklas Höhne, Marion Vieweg, Bill Hare, Michiel Schaeffer, Joeri Rogelj, Marcia Rocha, Johannes Gütschow, Carl-­‐Friedrich Schleussner, Felix Fallasch, Julia Larkin, Hanna Fekete, (2012)