Understanding the Paris Agreement’s Long Term Temperature Goal

The 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement is now widely accepted as the goal towards which climate policy is working, and in turn has led to the focus globally on achieving net zero CO2 emissions by mid-century at the latest. The science behind this goal is extensive, and the Agreement’s language is precise.

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1.5°C national pathway explorer

Explore 1.5°C national pathways for countries and sector-specific decarbonisation benchmarks derived from global IPCC pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement.

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Climate impact explorer

This tool shows how the severity of climate change impacts will increase over time in regions, countries and provinces at different levels of warming, starting with 1.5°C, the limit in the Paris Agreement. It also allows access to the underlying data.

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Report: Why gas is the new coal

Gas has no place in a 1.5˚C world, and its use should already have peaked, but instead the expansion of the industry continues to rise, according to a new report by Climate Analytics.
04 November 2021

Briefings

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Coal Phase Out

Coal is the most carbon intensive fossil fuel and phasing it out is a key step to achieve the emissions reductions needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement. Most emissions from coal are in the electricity sector and, as we already have the technologies that can replace coal, phase out is a relatively cheap and easy option to reduce emissions. Our research shows coal needs to be phased out globally by 2040 to meet the commitments made in Paris.

1.5°C

Since 2009 over a hundred Small Island Developing States, Least Developed Countries and many others have been calling for limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Placing the 1.5°C limit alongside the legally binding goal to hold global temperatures “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” in the Paris Agreement was a major victory for vulnerable countries. This page is an information pool for material around the 1.5°C temperature limit.

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Climate Analytics 2019 Annual Report

Our Annual Report 2019 looks back at how our work reflected and fed into the global priorities in areas of advancing climate science to support climate action.

Resource page

Loss and Damage

Loss and Damage refers to the impacts of climate change that can no longer be avoided through adaptation or mitigation. It is one of the key issues for vulnerable countries, who have contributed the least to climate change.

They call on the developed world to provide support to cope with Loss and Damage, which otherwise threatens their economies, cultures and the lives of their people.

This page provides background material and key resources, including scientific studies and briefing material and blogs with updates on the policy process under the UNFCCC and under the IPCC.

The strongest reason to keep 1.5°C within reach? The climate crisis that is already upon us

Just like most past climate conferences, COP26 delivered a mixed outcome, and people are entitled to feel angry, scared and frustrated at the glacial progress made. Glasgow was the first big test of Paris Agreement’s implementation and in particular its ambition ratchet-up mechanism – and it failed the test. Unpacking what happened at COP26, however, shows that there are grounds for hope.  
19 November 2021

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Publications

Multilateral cooperation initiatives (or “climate clubs”) can generate some of the additional action that is needed to achieve the goals agreed in the Paris Agreement. This paper, produced for the German Federal Environmental Authority (Umweltbundesamt UBA), analysed the state of collaboration in the four policy areas energy transition, synthetic fuels, food systems and forest protection.  
In Paris, all governments solemnly promised to come to COP26 with more ambitious 2030 commitments to close the massive 2030 emissions gap that was already evident in 2015. Three years later the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C reinforced the scientific imperative, and earlier this year it called a climate “code red.” Now, at the midpoint of Glasgow, it is clear there is a massive credibility, action and commitment gap that casts a long and dark shadow of doubt over the net zero goals put forward by more than 140 countries, covering 90% of global emissions.