Understanding the Paris Agreement’s Long Term Temperature Goal

The 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement is now widely accepted as the goal towards which climate policy is working, and in turn has led to the focus globally on achieving net zero CO2 emissions by mid-century at the latest. The science behind this goal is extensive, and the Agreement’s language is precise.

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Closing the gap: the impact of G20 climate commitments on limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C

New paper presents a set of scenarios that simulate different mitigation commitments made by G20 countries for 2030 and mid-century and the resulting impacts on global temperature rise.

1.5°C national pathway explorer

Explore 1.5°C national pathways for countries and sector-specific decarbonisation benchmarks derived from global IPCC pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement.

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Climate impact explorer

This tool shows how the severity of climate change impacts will increase over time in regions, countries and provinces at different levels of warming, starting with 1.5°C, the limit in the Paris Agreement. It also allows access to the underlying data.

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Briefings

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Coal Phase Out

Coal is the most carbon intensive fossil fuel and phasing it out is a key step to achieve the emissions reductions needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement. Most emissions from coal are in the electricity sector and, as we already have the technologies that can replace coal, phase out is a relatively cheap and easy option to reduce emissions. Our research shows coal needs to be phased out globally by 2040 to meet the commitments made in Paris.

1.5°C

Since 2009 over a hundred Small Island Developing States, Least Developed Countries and many others have been calling for limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Placing the 1.5°C limit alongside the legally binding goal to hold global temperatures “well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” in the Paris Agreement was a major victory for vulnerable countries. This page is an information pool for material around the 1.5°C temperature limit.

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Climate Analytics 2019 Annual Report

Our Annual Report 2019 looks back at how our work reflected and fed into the global priorities in areas of advancing climate science to support climate action.

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Loss and Damage

Loss and Damage refers to the impacts of climate change that can no longer be avoided through adaptation or mitigation. It is one of the key issues for vulnerable countries, who have contributed the least to climate change.

They call on the developed world to provide support to cope with Loss and Damage, which otherwise threatens their economies, cultures and the lives of their people.

This page provides background material and key resources, including scientific studies and briefing material and blogs with updates on the policy process under the UNFCCC and under the IPCC.

Blog

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Global Goal for Adaptation must be locally driven

Adaptation to climate change got more attention than ever during COP26. How countries and communities adapt to the inevitable climate change impacts is very context-specific which needs to be reflected in the Paris Agreement’s Global Goal on Adaptation.  
15 December 2021

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Publications

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Responsibility of major emitters for country-level warming and extreme hot yearsPeer reviewed

The contributions of single greenhouse gas emitters to country-level climate change are generally not disentangled, despite their relevance for climate policy and litigation. Here, we quantify the contributions of the five largest emitters (China, US, EU-27, India, and Russia) to projected 2030 country-level warming and extreme hot years with respect to pre-industrial climate using an innovative suite of Earth System Model emulators.  
2022, January
 

How is science making its way into national climate change adaptation policy? Insights from Burkina Faso Peer reviewed

Burkina Faso is highly vulnerable to the increasing impacts of climate change and currently has large adaptation deficits. Systematic policy document analysis, semi-structured interviews and participant observations were undertaken to explore how scientific information makes its way into national adaptation policy documents from its production to its inclusion into policies.  
2021, December