Adaptation

Climate change is happening now, and adaptation efforts are struggling to keep up. As global temperatures rise, adaptation will become harder, and in vulnerable places, limits will be reached. Adaptation has become an urgent priority for vulnerable countries.

We advise on adaptation planning with a special focus on transformational change to address long-term challenges. We also analyse the costs and effectiveness of different options to inform policymakers.

Scientific and technical expertise:

local adaptation planning and policy options
hard and soft limits for adaptation
developing novel approaches to adaptation modelling
transformational adaptation

Our experts

Dr Rosanne Martyr

Senior Scientist, Group Lead Adaptation and Loss and Damage

Ann-Kathrin Petersen

Adaptation Pathway Researcher

Ella Strachan

Climate Research Analyst - Samoa

Sasha Jattansingh

Loss and Damage Expert

Publications

Humid heat exceeds human tolerance limits and causes mass mortality

Adapting East and Southern Africa’s livestock to climate change

Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

A review of loss and damage in the Caribbean (1994 to 2024)

Earth Virtualisation Engines (EVE)

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warming

Orlov_2024_Environ._Res._Lett._19_031004 cover

A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change

Hitzestress und Anpassungsmaßnahmen in der Metropolregion Berlin-Brandenburg

Climatic risks to adaptive capacity

Machine learning evidence map reveals global differences in adaptation action

Defining a Regional Goal on Adaptation for the Caribbean

Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Projects

Mobilising adaptation finance: building capacity in Francophone North and sub-Saharan Africa

This programme aims to equip French-speaking African countries with the skills required to mobilise the finance they need to implement their climate change adaptation priorities.

What happens when you don’t, or can’t, migrate?

When climate impacts hit, there are those who don’t, or can’t, leave. The Immobility in a changing climate (ITHACA) project looks at the choices and constraints that lead to people’s immobility in the face of climate change, and what ramifications that has for their lives.

Long-term low emission, climate-resilient development strategies in Africa

This project aims to equip representatives from African countries with the knowledge, skills and networks needed to develop and implement long-term low emission development strategies. Here, we feature our work in Togo, Cote d’Ivoire and Benin.

Empowering island communities to reduce future flooding impacts (FloodAdapTT)

This project aims to empower island communities to assess what risks they face from flooding under different climate scenarios and help them determine which adaptation strategies will work best for their circumstances.

Risks of water and food insecurity in the Horn of Africa Drylands

The Horizon Europe funded project, Down2Earth, looks at future risks from water scarcity and food insecurity in vulnerable countries in the Horn of Africa Drylands and supports community-centered climate adaptation and resilience.

Understanding the climate impacts associated with temporarily overshooting 1.5°C

This project is working to develop the science around what the climate impacts of temporarily overshooting 1.5°C would mean for our climate.

Science-based national adaptation planning in Sub-Saharan Africa

This project provides francophone Least Developed Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with science-based support when formulating their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). In addition, it will give these countries access to international climate finance and establish national, international and regional platforms to share knowledge and experiences.

How do socioeconomic barriers inform limits to adaptation?

The EmBARK project investigates possible trajectories of socio-economic transformation processes and analyse their relevance as potential barriers to adaptation to climate change.

Climate risk, adaptation and insurance in the Caribbean

The Climate Risk Adaptation and Insurance in the Caribbean (CRAIC) project, led by Munich Climate Insurance Initiative, assists Caribbean countries in their efforts to increase social resilience and adapt to climate change by incorporating climate risk insurance within a broader framework of disaster risk reduction strategies.

Climate vulnerability monitor

The Climate Vulnerability Monitor, funded by the UN and spearheaded by the Climate Vulnerability Forum, aims to develop a global report and tool exploring climate change impacts, with a particular focus on the world’s most vulnerable countries. Climate Analytics leads the science consortium for this project.

IMPACT

IMPACT is a cross-cutting, multi-faceted project that aims to strengthen the connections between the scientific assessments of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to help enable access to finance and help Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) implement concrete projects.

Land management strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change

The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Climate change risk analysis to support the Network for Greening the Financial System

The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is a voluntary group of banks and supervisors that aim to share best practices on climate risk management in the financial sector and to mobilise mainstream finance to promote the transition to a sustainable economy. Climate Analytics contributes to this work by providing estimates of risk from climate change impacts using future climate projections and makes them publicly available through the Climate Impact Explorer online tool.

Projet d’Appui Scientifique aux processus de Plans Nationaux d’Adaptation

Ce projet soutient les Pays les Moins Avancés (PMA) de l’Afrique subsaharienne dans leurs processus de formulation de Plans Nationaux d’Adaptation (PNA). Il se déroule au Bénin, au Sénégal et au Burkina Faso, où les partenaires principaux sont les ministères nationaux chargés du changement climatique.

Assessing the differences in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C

The project ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) aims at assessing the difference in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C using targeted multi-ensemble simulations. The simulations are designed to allow for robust assessment of changing risks in extreme weather events.

Turn down the heat report series

From 2012 to 2014 we authored a series of reports for the World Bank looking at the impacts of climate change in a 4°C world with an emphasis on the impacts for the most vulnerable.

High-Level support for LDCs and SIDS on climate change

The HLSM High-Level Support Mechanism for LDC and SIDS on Climate Change project creates a support mechanism for high-level political representatives and their advisors from LDCs and SIDS that is demand-driven, responsive to ongoing needs and firmly rooted in the respective regions.

SURVIVE

SURVIVE, a joint project between Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) supports Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the international climate change negotiations.

PREVENT

PREVENT is built around a team of experienced climate scientists and analysts, whose objective is to provide science, policy, strategic and analytical support for delegations of the Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States.

Battle lines drawn at IPCC plenary as timeline decision successfully delayed for the third time

The role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in providing science input into the Paris Agreement and its critical five yearly Global Stocktake is under challenge.

Why the Caribbean is bracing for what could be the worst hurricane season on record

Unprecedented sea surface temperatures in June have already fuelled a hurricane that has flattened communities in the Caribbean - the earliest of its kind. With forecasts warning of more to come, our experts get into the numbers of why this years' season could be the worst on record.

Delay tactics at IPCC-61 could put science inputs to the UNFCCC at risk

The latest Plenary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just concluded in Sofia, Bulgaria. Despite days of deliberation, delegates were not able to agree on delivering the next round of reports in time for the second global stocktake, despite a request to do so from governments in the first global stocktake outcome agreed in Dubai last year.

How Africa can be better represented in the next cycle of IPCC reports and why it matters

Despite its climate vulnerabilities, Africa was highly underrepresented in the last IPCC cycle. As governments start planning the IPCC’s seventh assessment cycle, more funding and support for African climate science – and scientists – could help address this and result in more equitable climate policies.

Evidence from Berlin makes the case for urban green spaces: up to 3°C cooler in a heatwave

As global temperatures continue to rise, the safety and well-being of citizens within urban environments becomes increasingly important. Our recent work in the Berlin-Brandenburg area on adaptation to heat stress hammers home some truths – greener is better.

The IPCC set to respond to growing demand for climate science to inform policy

Last week in Istanbul, climate scientists and governments met in the sixtieth session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to agree a plan for its seventh, and potentially most consequential report cycle. The outcome means the IPCC will most probably take a more streamlined approach to its seventh cycle.

COP28: social and economic metrics could serve as stepping stone for Global Goal on Adaptation

As work on shaping the Global Goal on Adaptation culminates this week at COP28, we explore if social and economic metrics could be used as proxies for a country’s ability to adapt.

From droughts to floods: how Eastern African countries are responding to the rising El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole

The Horn of Africa looks set to go from one disaster to another as floods intensified by a rising El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are predicted to follow a prolonged drought. We take a look at climate policies in the region and what countries are doing to prepare for compound extreme events.

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption, Meteorological Satellite Center,Japan Meteorological Agency

From volcanic eruptions to tropical cyclones - adaptation and disaster risk reduction are still a question of finance for small islands

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are incredibly vulnerable to intensifying hazards from climate change. But the challenges that SIDS face in adapting can only be understood by looking at how these impacts interact with other risks – not all of them environmental.

Global Goal for Adaptation must be locally driven

Adaptation to climate change got more attention than ever during COP26. How countries and communities adapt to the inevitable climate change impacts is very context-specific which needs to be reflected in the Paris Agreement’s Global Goal on Adaptation.

Climate change is here now – we need to talk about adaptation

So far, 2021 has seen a summer of climate extremes in the Northern Hemisphere, bringing even the most developed and seemingly well-prepared nations to their knees. It has been clear for years that science underestimates the scope of increasing extremes, as climate models perform better for the mean. An immediate question follows: how can we prepare?

Understanding the complex relationship between land and climate

Land-based solutions can help mitigate and adapt to climate change, but some could make it more difficult to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Scientists from our LAMACLIMA project explain what this means and how the project can improve our knowledge and implementation of land-based solutions.

Planting mangroves helps to protect coastlines. Image by kmarius from Pixabay

Climate change and small islands: more scientific evidence of high risks

Small island developing states (SIDS) have long been recognised as being particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In a recently published article our researchers added further scientific evidence that island states are particularly at risk, and face unique challenges in addressing impacts.

Ghana, Image by jozuadouglas from Pixabay

Business-as-unusual: working with Ghana's private sector on climate change adaptation

Creating more climate-resilient societies will also require action from businesses. We supported the government of Ghana in developing an innovative strategy for leveraging the private sector to ensure the success of its national adaptation planning.

Restoring and planting mangroves helps stabilise coastlines and reduce flooding ©Ikhlasul Amal

Why climate scenarios need to better incorporate ‘adaptive capacity’

The scientific literature has clearly established the multiple benefits of stringent mitigation action to achieve the 1.5°C temperature goal and limit the impacts of climate change.

The NAP Readiness Writeshop in Apia, Samoa was organised under the IMPACT project.

The building blocks for vital climate adaptation in small islands

Improving access to climate finance and increasing absorption of funding opportunities are integral to speeding up Small Island Developing States’ (SIDS) efforts to enhance adaptation and build long-term resilience to climate change. A recent “Writeshop” in Samoa, which brought together Pacific and Caribbean representatives to build on each other's experiences, yielded a number of valuable lessons.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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