Assessing the differences in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C
Goethe-Universität Frankfurt, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum GmbH
The HAPPI-DE project coordinates the German contributions to the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts initiative (HAPPI). HAPPI is a collaboration of 44 scientific institutions to generate new scenarios to quantify the relative risks associated with 1.5°C and 2°C of warming focusing on extreme weather and the relative risks of low-probability extreme weather events.
Climate Analytics is coordinating the consortium that will contribute global and regional climate model simulations to the HAPPI, as well as impact model simulations in the agriculture and water sector. The project’s main aim is to produce scientific publications in time for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's special report on 1.5°C in 2018.
Climate impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C – Results of the HAPPI DE Project Klimafolgen bei 1,5°C und 2°C
Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): background and experimental design
Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions.
Climate extremes, land–climate feedbacks and land-use forcing at 1.5°C
Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2°C assessments
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework.
Risks for the global freshwater system at 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming
To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial.
Robust changes in tropical rainy season length at 1.5°C and 2°C
The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming
Science aspects of the 2°C and 1.5°C global goals in the Cancun Agreements
This paper reviews the scientific literature on impacts for 1.5 and 2°C warming levels with focus on risks for Least Developed Countries. We summarise observed impacts in LDCs that have been related to global mean temperature and provide an overview of projected future changes.
Long-term sea-level rise implied by 1.5 degree and 2 degree Celsius warming levels
Sea-level rise is a critical and uncertain climate change risk, involving timescales of centuries.
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5°C and 2°C
This article is a first comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C above pre-industrial levels.
Crop productivity changes in 1.5° C and 2° C worlds under climate sensitivity uncertainty
Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2°C
This article presents projections of future changes in aridity on small islands and evaluates overall changes in freshwater stress in small island developing states at warming levels of 1.5 and 2°C above pre-industrial level.