Impacts of 1.5 versus 2°C on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna
To reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5°C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming.
In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5°C versus 2°C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows.
As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertiliser use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertiliser use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2°C compared to 1.5°C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario.
In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertiliser levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security.
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De la CDN 1.0 à la CDN 2.0: qu'est-ce qui a changé dans les CDN des PMA de l’Afrique de l'Ouest?
La présente étude examine les premières et les secondes Contributions Déterminées au niveau National des onze pays les moins avancés de l’Afrique de l’Ouest à savoir le Bénin, le Burkina Faso, la Gambie, la Guinée, la Guinée Bissau, le Libéria, le Mali, le Niger, le Sénégal, la Sierra Leone et le Togo.
Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments
Adaptation is a key societal response to reduce the impacts of climate change, yet it is poorly represented in current modelling frameworks. We identify key research gaps and suggest entry points for adaptation in quantitative assessments of climate change to enhance policy guidance.
The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty
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Solar radiation modification: a dangerous distraction from required emissions reductions
Investing precious time and resources in this critical decade to explore SRM technologies distracts from the urgent need to step up mitigation efforts to halve emissions by 2030.