Addressing challenges in the land sector under the Paris Agreement

The land sector plays a critical role in global climate action under the Paris Agreement – almost all countries include land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF) as part of their national emissions target. Yet, there are concerns from the scientific community that governments may be overstating land sinks in their accounting, masking the scale and pace of the fossil fuel emissions cuts needed to keep 1.5°C in reach.

Studies reveal a misalignment between scientific estimates of land carbon uptake and official national greenhouse gas inventories. This discrepancy means that faster reductions in emissions are needed in reality than is implied by approaches using official national greenhouse gas inventories.

Current methods of accounting LULUCF carbon sequestration, when included within national accounting systems, can also add substantially to the fossil fuel emissions that countries can still emit and meet their Paris NDC targets. In combination, these problems jeopardize the ability to limit warming into 1.5°C, even if nominal 1.5°C pathways are followed.

Reliance by countries on LULUCF carbon sequestration risks undermining the urgent, deep cuts in fossil emissions needed to keep 1.5°C in reach.

Furthermore, the sharp declines in the land carbon sink observed in 2023 and 2024, linked to a higher-than-expected rise in CO2 levels, adds to concerns that long-term declines in the ability of land to take up carbon may be accelerating.

Land available for removals is limited and competes with other important land uses such as food production and biodiversity protection, and while cutting emissions has a permanent effect, land-based carbon storage is inherently temporary, as human activity and natural events can release stored carbon.

Therefore, in addition to sustainability concerns, the idea that land-based carbon removals can ‘offset’ CO2 emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is scientifically flawed as fossil fuel CO2 emissions are, for all practical purposes, irreversible.

Recommendations for dealing with these challenges:

• Submit economy-wide NDCs that align with the 1.5°C warming limit, covering all gases, sectors, sources and categories, including the land sector.
• Ensure transparency: clearly show the role land plays in delivering headline emissions reductions by providing separate indicative targets on:
  1. gross emissions reductions excluding land-use change and forestry
  2. land-based carbon sequestration
  3. engineered permanent carbon removals
• Focus on emissions reductions as a priority: cutting fossil emissions now will avoid the need for risky carbon removals in the future. Heavy reliance on temporary sinks will result in additional warming and could push climate goals out of reach.
• Commit to ending deforestation by 2030: set out national plans in line with the Global Stocktake call to halt deforestation and restore carbon sinks by 2030.
• Address the misalignment between national greenhouse inventories and scientific estimates of carbon uptake by reforming the approach taken to reporting and accounting for fluxes of carbon on managed and unmanaged land, and by ensuring that all fluxes of forest-based carbon are tracked.
• Set out net zero plans: show when and how governments and other actors plan to reach net zero CO2 and all greenhouse gases, including which sectors will have residual emissions remaining in unavoidable or hard-to-abate sectors and how these will be addressed.
• Describe carbon trading plans over the NDC period: say whether there are plans to buy or sell carbon credits under Article 6, explaining how much you expect to trade and in which sectors.

In the absence of strict common rules governing LULUCF, as previously seen under the Kyoto Protocol, countries need to actively address the above issues to ensure that land sinks do not obscure the level of real emissions cuts needed. Enhanced transparency and a fossil-first approach to emissions reductions are essential to ensuring that the land sector does not serve to drive overall emissions higher. However, with action to halt deforestation and restore carbon sinks, land has an important role to play in reaching net zero and keeping the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature limit in reach.