The Paris Agreement's first Global Stocktake, agreed in 2023, calls for countries to align their national climate pledges with 1.5°C. For most countries this means a need to increase their 2030 mitigation ambition as well as putting forward 1.5°C-aligned Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2035. These NDCs are due to be submitted by February 2025.

We have produced factsheets for Australia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA. These show 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF). These were produced using 1.5°C compatible global and regional emission pathways from the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report downscaled to the national level.

Most countries are putting forward “net’’ NDC emission targets that include LULUCF. However, we emphasise the ‘’gross’’ emissions reductions needed for 1.5°C alignment (i.e. excluding LULUCF). This is due to high uncertainty in historical and projected LULUCF emissions and sequestration, the risk of non-permanent removals from LULUCF, and the need to focus on emission reductions from fossil fuel and other industrial greenhouse gas emissions.

Publications