The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming
Sonia Seneviratne, Joeri Rogelj, Roland Séférian, Richard Wartenburger, Myles Allen, Michelle Cain, Richard Millar, Kristie Ebi, Neville Ellis, Ove Hoegh-Guldberg, Antony Payne, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Petra Tschakert and Rachel Warren
The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time.
Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales, owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change.
Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.
Coastal loss and damage for small islands
This commentary on a paper in Nature Sustainability reviews how the study quantifies the impacts of sea-level rise on small island states and estimates the impacts in terms of cost, land loss and population exposure across all small islands worldwide.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways
Our new method applies sustainability limits and minimises the need for carbon dioxide removal to set key 2030 global targets for renewables, fossil fuels and emissions.
The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty
Here, we investigate the deployment timescales of solar radiation modification and how they are affected by different levels of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty.
Emissions as usual: implications for the Safeguard Mechanism of LNG and coal mine projects
This report examines the implications of committed and proposed developments in the LNG and coal mining sectors for reform of Australia's Safeguard Mechanism.
Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach
Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimise risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds
1.5°C is still in reach to reduce the worst climate risks – but only with immediate mitigation action and shifting finance
How can the EU transform its economy to meet the 1.5°C goal?
What does the 1.5°C goal require from EU climate policy? This 4i-TRACTION policy brief analyses the latest 1.5°C-aligned scenarios and spells out what they imply for EU climate policy.
Institutional decarbonisation scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal
This study analyses six institutional decarbonisation scenarios published between 2020 and mid 2021 (including four from the oil majors and two from the International Energy Agency. It finds that most of the scenarios would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit warming to ‘well below 2 ̊C, let alone 1.5 ̊C, and would exceed the 1.5 ̊C warming limit by a significant margin.