Completed

October 2016– January 2022

IMPACT

Contacts

Pacific Region – Dr Patrick Pringle
Caribbean Region – Dr Adelle Thomas
West Africa – Dr Djibril Dayamba

Funder

International Climate Initiative

Partners

Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Secretariat of the Pacific Regional Environment Programme, Charles & Associates Inc, Le Comité Permanent Inter-Etats de Lutte contre la Sécheresse dans le Sahel, West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impacts Research.

IMPACT is a cross-cutting, multi-faceted project that aims to strengthen the connections between the scientific assessments of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to help enable access to finance and help implement concrete projects in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs). The project is implemented in three focus regions –the Pacific, West Africa and the Caribbean.

Due to the diverse and unique conditions of SIDS and LDCs, climate change poses an existential threat to many of these countries and undermines sustainable development prospects for most. These countries often lack capacity to develop and implement science-based strategies for climate adaptation and mitigation, to access climate finance and to fully represent their interests at the international level. But they have a vital interest in being able to ensure an ambitious and 1.5°C limit-compatible implementation of the Paris Agreement in the period to 2020. The tools and methods of this project are co-developed with the partner organisations to follow regional requirements, ensure ownership and the establishment of long-term application capacities. Integration into the larger framework is ensuring comparability as well as transferability of results between regions.

The project aims to build sustainable capacity in partner regions in these dimensions:

Climate Finance and Implementation

This aspect of the project supports regional implementation, enhances long-term sustainable access to international climate finance and strengthens capacities of national and regional entities through co-development of institutional processes and plans, strategic stakeholder engagement, and regular regional training workshops throughout the project duration.

Climate Policy

IMPACT assists with revising 2020 NDCs & analyses transformational pathways, including emissions ambition requirements in line with the 1.5°C goal in the Paris Agreement, to inform implementation, climate finance investments, and adaptation needs.

Climate Science

Through IMPACT, scientific outputs and knowledge products are co-developed with relevant actors to make use of them in the development and implementation of transformational climate adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Climate Diplomacy

IMPACT diplomacy is aimed at enhancing SIDS and LDCs negotiators’ participation in the international climate negotiations (UNFCCC) by building on the expertise, networks and trust established through the highly successful SURVIVE and High Level Support Mechanism projects.

Enb cop25 13dec19 kiaraworth 12 — Rueanna Haynes, Leon Charles, Simon Stiell, Bill Hare and Dr Spencer Thomas at COP25. Photo: K Worth

Impact workshop apia samoa 2018 — Implementation workshop, Samoa, July 2018

Project Features

2020 NDC Revision

IMPACT assists with the enhancement of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to increase ambition and fast-track implementation within the NDC Partnership. Climate Analytics is part of the NDC Support Cluster, established by the German Ministry of Environment as part of its International Climate Initiative, which aims to promote coordinated consultations and maximise synergies in the partner countries.

Country Request Mechanism

One of the unique features that allows IMPACT to deliver tailored policy, technical and scientific support in the focus regions is the ‘country support request mechanism,’ developed with partner countries during the inception phase of the project.

This is how the mechanism works: the requesting body – which can be a regional organisation or a national government department, for example – contacts one of our regional partners (SPREP in the Pacific, CCCCC in the Caribbean and Climate Analytics Lomé in West Africa), specifying its climate-related needs. Our regional scientists then work with the requesting body and regional partners to develop the best approach to deliver this support. Since the implementation of the mechanism in 2017, IMPACT has responded to more than 20 requests.

Climate Tools

Open access, user-friendly, and interactive tools making climate projections easily available to policy makers and researchers for agriculture, energy, and human health.

Adaptation Map for West Africa and Caribbean
Costs of Inaction

Other tools developed under IMPACT and other Climate Analytics projects: RegioCrop, Local Sea Level Rise (Local SLR), RegioClim (developed under the PAS-PNA project)

Updates

Small Island Developing States access to the Green Climate Fund

This briefing is the second of a two-part series that examines historical access to the Green Climate Fund by Small Island Developing States. It focuses on the quality of proposals based on the feedback from the independent Technical Advisory Panel.

Conducting (pre)feasibility studies for adaptation projects to be submitted to the GCF in Francophone LDCs in Africa

This document is a practical guide for conducting (pre)feasibility studies for adaptation projects to be submitted to the Green Climate Fund in Francophone countries in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Zona Colonial, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Debt-for-climate swaps for small islands

Debt-for-climate swaps provide an avenue for small island developing states to address challenges arising from adapting to increasing climate change risk and recovering from the pandemic.

Sustainable development through climate leadership — Opportunities for LDCs

This briefing explores the potential for a transition to a more sustainable and efficient energy system based on renewable energy to generate sustainable development co-benefits in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs).

SIDS access to the Green Climate Fund - understanding the GCF portfolio in small island developing states

This briefing analyses approved Green Climate Fund projects from 2015 to 2021, with a view to understanding how Small Island Developing States have accessed the fund to date.

Management of loss and damage in small island developing states: implications for a 1.5°C or warmer world

This research utilises interviews with UNFCCC climate change negotiators for SIDS and analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, to assess the state of loss and damage management in SIDS.

Two steps down the debt spiral: COVID-19 and tropical cyclones severely limit the fiscal space of many Small Island Developing States

With tourism being one of the sectors most affected by Covid-19, many SIDS economies find themselves critically hit by the pandemic, adding to the continued financial stress through tropical cyclone-induced losses. Climate models project further risks.

Loss and damage implications of sea-level rise on Small Island Developing States

This review assesses the regional nature of sea-level rise for Small Island Developing States, highlights associated impacts and risks, and reviews limits to adaptation and resultant economic and non-economic loss and damage.

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion — Flexible Enabling Technology for Variable Renewable Energy Integration in the Caribbean

Through GIS mapping of all Caribbean islands, this work shows the potential for near-coastal deep-water as a resource for ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) is shown, and these results are coupled with an estimate of the countries for which OTEC would be most advantageous due to a lack of other dispatchable renewable power options.

silhouette of palm trees in wind, Punta Cana

Loss and damage costing and financing mechanisms: Caribbean outlook

This brief provides a background on loss and damage, its importance for the Caribbean, tools and methodologies to determine costs of loss and damage, and potential innovative financing mechanisms.

Glacial melt spells more trouble in the Himalayan LDCs

The recent landmark International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) report on glacial melt in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya (HKH) region paints a drastic picture, indicating that the glaciers will melt by one third even if global temperature rise is limited to 1.5°C, a goal of the Paris climate agreement. However, the picture becomes even bleaker for the region’s Least Developed Countries, in which the report projects glaciers will recede by some 50% by the end of the century, spelling disaster for the poorest people living on the roof of the world.

COP23. The voices of vulnerable nations should be represented in IPCC authorship

Authors from vulnerable nations in IPCC reports

Just as the voices of vulnerable nations were critical in including the 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement, it is also critical that experts from these states play an active role in authorship of IPCC reports. It's encouraging to see that the composition of the body of experts selected to put together the Special Report on 1.5°C and the Sixth Assessment Report increasingly reflects this.

En route to Katowice: Negotiators from Least Developed Countries prepare for COP24

Earlier this month around 30 ministers and high-level representatives from LDCs met in Addis-Ababa, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, to prepare for the upcoming climate talks to be held in Katowice, Poland (COP24) in December. They prepared main messages.

Belize launched its vision for its two-year chairmanship of AOSIS at a 19 Feb 2019 event at UN HQ.

Where action on climate change, sustainable development and oceans intersects - Belize's vision for AOSIS

Belize has embarked on its two-year term leading the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). The Caribbean nation’s vision for the Alliance, which turns 30 this year, focuses on ambitious action on climate change, sustainable development and oceans.

Solar panels on a farm in Rwanda. ©Water for Food, CC BY-NC 2.0

COVID-19 another shock for vulnerable countries facing multiple crises

The coronavirus pandemic adds yet another shock to the multiple challenges that more than a billion people living in the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) already face in day-to-day life. It is much more than a health crisis. It has the potential to create devastating health, social, economic and environmental crises that will leave a deep, long-lasting mark. However, it is an opportunity to adopt and implement sustainable solutions during the recovery process, also for LDCs, without losing sight of the climate crisis.

Boathouse wreckage after hurricane wind water pollution

Island states need better data to manage climate losses

In the Caribbean and Pacific, islanders are already hit by climate change, but lack tools to measure the damages for leverage in international negotiations

A year of climate extremes: a case for Loss & Damage at COP23

Climate extremes, many now bearing human fingerprints, are already causing devastating impacts across the globe, and the time is high for Loss and Damage to be considered in concrete and actionable terms in the implementation of the Paris Agreement. But what are the next steps to really move this issue forward, and in particular what needs to be done at the first “Islands COP” in Bonn?

Hurricane Maria damages in El Maní Sabanetas Mayagüez Puerto Rico

Big change after the big storm: Post-disaster transformative adaptation in Small Island Developing States

Presenting a disaster as an ‘opportunity’ is clearly a sensitive and emotive issue. But when will there be a better opportunity to relocate essential services away from high risk areas than when they need rebuilding?

Climate change loss & damage — an urgent, cross-cutting issue

Ever more intense climatic events are rapidly pushing Small Island Developing States to the verge of their coping capacities, beyond which they will experience irreparable loss and damage. These risks threaten the socio-economic stability and undermine already limited abilities to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. A recent event hosted by the Government of Belize looked at ways of increasing understanding and international cooperation to address this urgent issue.

Good news! Loss & damage in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C

Small Island Developing States had long been calling for the inclusion of information on loss and damage. Were they heard by the authors of the newly published Special Report on 1.5°C?

Climate Analytics scientists have served as guest editors for journal regional environmental change.

Small Islands and 1.5°C — A Special Issue in Regional Environmental Change

Climate Analytics scientists have served as guest editors for a special issue in the academic journal regional environmental change. They’ve overseen the editorial process of 15 papers that have contributed to the literature base on 1.5°C and small islands for the 1.5°C Special Report.

Key Messages for Small Island Developing States from the IPCC 1.5°C Special Report

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have been advocating for at least a decade for the establishment of 1.5°C as an upper limit for global average temperature increase - due to their high vulnerability to increased climate impacts. This latest IPCC 1.5°C Special Report provides the scientific assessment that supports the long-established cry of SIDS to limit global temperatures and the risks that threaten these small island nations.

The NAP Readiness Writeshop in Apia, Samoa was organised under the IMPACT project.

The building blocks for vital climate adaptation in small islands

Improving access to climate finance and increasing absorption of funding opportunities are integral to speeding up Small Island Developing States’ (SIDS) efforts to enhance adaptation and build long-term resilience to climate change. A recent “Writeshop” in Samoa, which brought together Pacific and Caribbean representatives to build on each other's experiences, yielded a number of valuable lessons.

Small Island Developing States, such as Kiribati, are on the frontlines of climate change.

Home by the sea: new science shows more sea-level rise impacts on small islands

Oceans and seas around the world will continue to rise for centuries, even long after global mean temperatures have stabilised, new research shows. Add to that another recent finding that more land is below the high tide line than originally estimated and the implications for small island communities are clear: they face serious and protracted challenges from global warming related sea-level rise. Steep carbon emission reductions and limiting warming to 1.5°C, as governments agreed by signing the Paris Agreement, will significantly reduce risks related to long-term sea level rise.

Hurricane Dorian damage in the Bahamas ©Coast Guard News

Coronavirus underscores small islands' climate vulnerability

The coronavirus pandemic is a new setback for island states already suffering from climate change and storms such as Cyclone Harold and Hurricane Dorian. They are also preparing for the next season… What are the implications for the efficacy of coronavirus measures as well as for the economic resources available to respond to the pandemic?

COVID-19 will disrupt global food supply and prices, severely affecting atolls with limited land.

Facing Covid and climate, Pacific island capacity stretched

As the economic impacts of COVID-19 on Pacific Small Island Developing States stretch into 2020, there is a real risk that longer-term strategic action on climate change will take a back seat, and countries struggling to keep up with rising tides risk losing further ground.

Planting mangroves helps to protect coastlines. Image by kmarius from Pixabay

Climate change and small islands: more scientific evidence of high risks

Small island developing states (SIDS) have long been recognised as being particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In a recently published article our researchers added further scientific evidence that island states are particularly at risk, and face unique challenges in addressing impacts.

Participants at Antigua and Barbuda's Fourth National Communication Mitigation Workshop 14 Aug 2020

Consultations in the time of Covid-19: small islands unhindered in stepping up climate ambition

Despite the compounding challenges posed by the coronavirus pandemic, its economic fallout and a slew of tropical storms, small island nations still prioritise fighting the existential threat of climate change. They are pressing on with strengthening their climate commitments under the Paris Agreement, which governments are expected to communicate by the end of 2020.

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai eruption, Meteorological Satellite Center,Japan Meteorological Agency

From volcanic eruptions to tropical cyclones - adaptation and disaster risk reduction are still a question of finance for small islands

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) are incredibly vulnerable to intensifying hazards from climate change. But the challenges that SIDS face in adapting can only be understood by looking at how these impacts interact with other risks – not all of them environmental.

West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Stijn Dijkstra, Pexels

What does the IPCC say on losses and damages?

A robust assessment of losses and damages was featured in the recent IPCC Working Group II report, representing a major step forward in recognising existing negative impacts and future risks of climate change. The assessment provides strong support for increased action and support for loss and damage, urgent mitigation to limit global warming to 1.5°C, and more extensive adaptation.

Tropical cyclones: impacts, the link to climate change and adaptation

Following the string of high-intensity tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in 2017 and the devastating impacts on small island states, a number of questions have been raised about linkages between these cyclones and climate change. This briefing provides clarity on scientifically-supported connections between existing tropical cyclones and climate change.

The Warsaw International Mechanism - what has happened until now and what are the next big steps?

A report on the outcomes of the second meeting of the Executive Committee of the Warsaw International Mechanism on Loss and Damage (WIM), which took place in February 2016.

Why using 20-year Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) for emission targets are a very bad idea for climate policy

There have been proposals for the UNFCCC to adopt a dual-term greenhouse gas accounting standard: 20-year GWPs alongside the presently accepted 100-year GWPs. It is argued that the advantage of such a change would be to more rapidly reduce short term warming and buy time for CO2 reductions. This briefing shows why these changes would be counterproductive and the benefits overstated.

The dangers of blue carbon offsets: from hot air to hot water?

There has been much talk of “Blue Carbon” in the Bonn climate negotiations. But what does it really mean? This briefing sets out the issues and finds that the use of blue carbon to offset and hence effectively avoid required emission reductions in other sectors would undermine our ability to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Update: the dangers of blue carbon offsets: from hot air to hot water?

This briefing unpacks the key challenges and risks associated with using blue carbon as an offsetting mechanism, including how much the carbon storage in coastal ecosystems threatened by current and future climate impacts.

Informing the Talanoa Dialogue question, “How do we get to 1.5°C?”

How do we limit warming to 1.5°C: informing the Talanoa Dialogue question, “How do we get there?”

Integrated Assessment Models of climate change mitigation, assessed in IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (IPCC SR1.5), show a large spectrum of 1.5°C- compatible pathways that limit warming to this level during the century, or exceed it by only a limited amount of less than 0.1°C (“low overshoot”). This Climate Analytics submission to the Talanoa Dialogue, which unpacks in some detail the implications of these pathways.

Carbon budgets for the 1.5°C limit

Recent publications have argued that the remaining “carbon budget” available to meet the Paris agreement long-term temperature goal is larger than previously estimated in IPCC AR5. This briefing outlines why the notion of “more time” for climate protection is ill advised. We have no time to lose to achieve 1.5°C.

Pacific Marine Climate Change Report Card 2018

This Commonwealth Marine Economies Programme report card provides a summary of climate change impacts on coasts and seas in the Pacific island region, and how Pacific islands can respond.

Keeping up with the renewable revolution - updating the NDCs

Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement are based on pre-2014 information that can be regarded as outdated today. The only reasonable reaction to this rapidly changing landscape should be to update the NDCs for 2025 and 2030.

Debt for climate swaps: Caribbean outlook

This briefing looks at how debt for climate swaps may provide an avenue for Small Island Developing States to address debt challenges while also increasing resilience to climate change.

Why geoengineering is not a solution to the climate problem

This briefing addresses grave scientific concerns in relation to proposed geoengineering techniques such as solar radiation management.

Insights from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C for preparation of long-term strategies

This briefing lays out the key findings of the IPCC SR15 that inform governments in their task to develop and submit long-term low emission sustainable development strategies, and inform the continuous scaling up of near- and mid-term action and targets, including in Nationally Determined contributions (NDCs), in line with the ratcheting-up mechanism enshrined in the Paris Agreement.

Towards optimal 1.5° and 2 °C emission pathways for individual countries: A Finland case study

A Finland case study

Tracking global climate change adaptation among governments

This article provides an overview of the challenges of adaptation tracking and propose a comprehensive conceptual framework for assessing adaptation progress by governments that is scalable over time and across contexts.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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