26 October, 2023

Coastal loss and damage for small islands

Authors

Rosanne Martyr-Koller and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

Quantifications of the impacts of sea-level rise in small island states are urgently needed. Focusing on flooding from sea-level rise, a study now estimates the impacts in terms of cost, land loss and population exposure across all small islands worldwide.

However, for many islands, quantitative assessments of climate change impacts at the national level are still lacking. Writing in Nature Sustainability, Vousdoukas et al. fill this gap through a global quantitative assessment of the direct impacts from sea-level rise (SLR) on the people, land and economies of SIDS. Their study shows in grim clarity the unavoidable impacts of SLR for SIDS even under a 1.5 °C scenario, but also underscores what negative impacts can still be avoided if urgent climate action is taken.

Publications

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Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

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Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach

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Overconfidence in climate overshoot

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Calculating the loss and damage finance gap: a scoping and feasibility exercise

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Economic and non-economic loss and damage: a harmful dichotomy?

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Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

With international efforts on climate action still not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, technological fixes that aim to intentionally alter the Earth’s climate, such as solar geoengineering, might seem like appealing options for tackling global warming. But they come with questions in terms of feasibility, impacts and risks, governance and geopolitics, and who may or may not benefit.

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, funding for loss and damage is an acute need. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers.

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Current climate policies are putting Earth on a path to a high risk of triggering climatic tipping points – even if temperatures return to below 1.5°C of global warming after a period of overshoot. A new study finds that the risk of crossing these thresholds increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates above 2.0 °C. These risks can be minimised if stringent emissions reductions are taken in the next decade, and net zero greenhouse gas emissions are met and maintained.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

Using existing databases to report on loss and damage in Biennial Transparency Reports under the UNFCCC

Calculating financing needs to respond to loss and damage requires response activities to be costed. However, comprehensive assessments of current and future loss and damage costs are largely unavailable. This briefing proposes using existing databases as proxies in the interim.

Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran

This April and May, large regions of central Asia were hit by a series of storms resulting in heavy downpours and flash flooding. Researchers assessed what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the weather conditions that caused the floods.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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