17 July, 2023

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Authors

Marina Andrijevic, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Tabea Lissner, Raya Muttarak, Keywan Riahi, Emily Theokritoff, Adelle Thomas, Nicole van Maanen and Edward Byers

First published

Download citation

Climate change adaptation needs, as well as the capacity to adapt, are unequally distributed around the world. Global models that assess the impacts of climate change and policy options to reduce them most often do not elaborately represent adaptation. When they do, they rarely account for heterogeneity in societies’ adaptive capacities and their temporal dynamics.

Here we propose ways to quantify adaptive capacity within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, a scenario set widely used by climate impact and integrated assessment models.

A large set of indicators spanning different socioeconomic dimensions can be used to assess adaptive capacity and deliver adaptation-relevant, scenario-resolved information that is crucial for more realistic assessment of whether and how climate risks can be reduced by adaptation.

Adaptation

Publications

Adapting East and Southern Africa’s livestock to climate change

This paper presents a decision-making framework to help livestock farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa select context-specific adaptation strategies in response to climate change. The framework uses a decision tree to evaluate options based on different climate scenarios and systems, offering tailored guidance for various livestock types and regions.

Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

With international efforts on climate action still not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, technological fixes that aim to intentionally alter the Earth’s climate, such as solar geoengineering, might seem like appealing options for tackling global warming. But they come with questions in terms of feasibility, impacts and risks, governance and geopolitics, and who may or may not benefit.

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

This technical guide proposes concrete steps and actions to help African countries develop strong, high-performing Long-Term Low Emission and Climate Resilient Development Strategies that chart a low-emission development path, build resilience, encourage innovation, and create new opportunities for green growth.

A review of loss and damage in the Caribbean (1994 to 2024)

Loss and damage from climate change has been the lived reality of Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) for decades. Despite efforts to adapt, it is reversing development gains, leaving lasting financial stress, and causing irreparable damage, including the loss of cultural heritage. This report is the first to provide a systematic overview of how Caribbean countries are framing and reporting on loss and damage.

Earth Virtualisation Engines (EVE)

The authors propose creating an international federation of research institutions that improve the quality and accessibility of Earth systems data. The purpose is to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

This briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Ce rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse.

Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warming

When it comes to water, adaptation to climate change becomes less effective when warming is above 1.5°C, according to a new study looking at water-related climate risk at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of warming. The study finds adaptation needs to go hand-in-hand with ambitious emissions reductions and decarbonisation.

Shivendu shukla 3yo T Pu YR9 ZY unsplash

A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change

This study lays out how to integrate the economic repercussions of climate change on people's health with direct health impacts. The authors argue this could provide more realistic scenario projections than health studies on their own and be more useful for adaptation policy.

Hitzestress und Anpassungsmaßnahmen in der Metropolregion Berlin-Brandenburg

Städte sind dabei besonders anfällig für Hitzestress. Deshalb betrachten wir in diesem Bericht die Folgen des Klimawandels auf die Metropolregion Berlin-Brandenburg, mit einem speziellen Fokus auf die Auswirkungen von Hitzestress und die Entwicklung von Anpassungsstrategien.

Climatic risks to adaptive capacity

A society’s adaptive capacity determines whether the potential of adaptation to reduce risks will be realised. In this paper, we make the case that climate change itself adds to adaptation constraints and limits.

Machine learning evidence map reveals global differences in adaptation action

In this study, we tracked how adaptation policy research has changed globally to create a map of how governments around the world use different tools at different levels and in different regions. We found that while the evidence base is growing, most of this evidence, however, comes from the Global North.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment