17 July, 2023

Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments

Authors

Marina Andrijevic, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Tabea Lissner, Raya Muttarak, Keywan Riahi, Emily Theokritoff, Adelle Thomas, Nicole van Maanen and Edward Byers

First published

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Climate change adaptation needs, as well as the capacity to adapt, are unequally distributed around the world. Global models that assess the impacts of climate change and policy options to reduce them most often do not elaborately represent adaptation. When they do, they rarely account for heterogeneity in societies’ adaptive capacities and their temporal dynamics.

Here we propose ways to quantify adaptive capacity within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, a scenario set widely used by climate impact and integrated assessment models.

A large set of indicators spanning different socioeconomic dimensions can be used to assess adaptive capacity and deliver adaptation-relevant, scenario-resolved information that is crucial for more realistic assessment of whether and how climate risks can be reduced by adaptation.

Adaptation

Publications

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

This briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Ce rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse.

Effectiveness of water-related adaptation decreases with increasing warming

When it comes to water, adaptation to climate change becomes less effective when warming is above 1.5°C, according to a new study looking at water-related climate risk at 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C, and 4°C of warming. The study finds adaptation needs to go hand-in-hand with ambitious emissions reductions and decarbonisation.

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A better integration of health and economic impact assessments of climate change

This study lays out how to integrate the economic repercussions of climate change on people's health with direct health impacts. The authors argue this could provide more realistic scenario projections than health studies on their own and be more useful for adaptation policy.

Hitzestress und Anpassungsmaßnahmen in der Metropolregion Berlin-Brandenburg

Städte sind dabei besonders anfällig für Hitzestress. Deshalb betrachten wir in diesem Bericht die Folgen des Klimawandels auf die Metropolregion Berlin-Brandenburg, mit einem speziellen Fokus auf die Auswirkungen von Hitzestress und die Entwicklung von Anpassungsstrategien.

Climatic risks to adaptive capacity

A society’s adaptive capacity determines whether the potential of adaptation to reduce risks will be realised. In this paper, we make the case that climate change itself adds to adaptation constraints and limits.

Machine learning evidence map reveals global differences in adaptation action

In this study, we tracked how adaptation policy research has changed globally to create a map of how governments around the world use different tools at different levels and in different regions. We found that while the evidence base is growing, most of this evidence, however, comes from the Global North.

Defining a Regional Goal on Adaptation for the Caribbean

While the Global Goal on Adaptation provides a collective goal for adapting to climate change, adaptation is often a context specific and localised process. This paper proposes a Regional Goal on Adaptation for the Caribbean based on priorities relevant for Caribbean small island developing states.

Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development

Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios.

Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections

This study finds that the jet stream – air currents in the upper atmosphere – can synchronise extreme weather caused by climate change, resulting in crop failures in multiple countries at the same time.

De la CDN 1.0 à la CDN 2.0: qu'est-ce qui a changé dans les CDN des PMA de l’Afrique de l'Ouest?

La présente étude examine les premières et les secondes Contributions Déterminées au niveau National des onze pays les moins avancés de l’Afrique de l’Ouest à savoir le Bénin, le Burkina Faso, la Gambie, la Guinée, la Guinée Bissau, le Libéria, le Mali, le Niger, le Sénégal, la Sierra Leone et le Togo.

Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments

Adaptation is a key societal response to reduce the impacts of climate change, yet it is poorly represented in current modelling frameworks. We identify key research gaps and suggest entry points for adaptation in quantitative assessments of climate change to enhance policy guidance.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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