27 October, 2022

Cumulative CO2 emissions in 1.5°C compatible pathways for Estonia

Authors

Neil Grant, Claire Fyson and Carl-Friedrich Schleussner

This briefing calculates the cumulative CO2 emissions that Estonia could emit if it is to align with the internationally agreed 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement. It produces emissions pathways for Estonia by downscaling global cost-effective pathways to the national level.

The key findings are:

In 1.5°C compatible pathways, Estonia’s cumulative CO2 emissions need to be limited to 180–210MtCO2 between 2020 and 2050, excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).
If Estonia can restore its LULUCF sink to the 2000–2020 average, total cumulative CO2 emissions including LULUCF could be limited to 104–135MtCO2.
Estonia’s fair share of the global carbon budget may be smaller still, so domestic action should be supplemented by providing climate finance to less developed countries.
Estonia would need to rapidly reduce CO2 emissions and restore and expand the LULUCF sink, while also taking action to reduce non-CO2 emissions in line with the best available science.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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