27 October, 2022

Cumulative CO2 emissions in 1.5°C compatible pathways for Estonia

This briefing calculates the cumulative CO2 emissions that Estonia could emit if it is to align with the internationally agreed 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement. It produces emissions pathways for Estonia by downscaling global cost-effective pathways to the national level.

The key findings are:

  • In 1.5°C compatible pathways, Estonia’s cumulative CO2 emissions need to be limited to 180–210MtCO2 between 2020 and 2050, excluding land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF).
  • If Estonia can restore its LULUCF sink to the 2000–2020 average, total cumulative CO2 emissions including LULUCF could be limited to 104–135MtCO2.
  • Estonia’s fair share of the global carbon budget may be smaller still, so domestic action should be supplemented by providing climate finance to less developed countries.
  • Estonia would need to rapidly reduce CO2 emissions and restore and expand the LULUCF sink, while also taking action to reduce non-CO2 emissions in line with the best available science.