Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways

This study presents a new dataset of annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways (when the 1.5 °C of global warming limit is exceeded). The data offers a unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including when temperature thresholds might be exceeded, and by how much.

Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks

This study in Nature show that definitions of net zero now in widespread use will not actually stop global warming. The paper demonstrates that relying on natural carbon sinks, such as in forests or oceans, to 'offset' ongoing fossil fuel emissions will lead to continued warming.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

New study finds the devastating floods in Nepal late September were exacerbated by rapid urbanisation and climate change. The analysis found the relentless rain, which fell on saturated ground in the late monsoon, was made at least 10% heavier and 70% more likely by climate change.

Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach

Seasonal forecasting of atmospheric parameters is important in various fields including agriculture. This study tests how machine learning can complement dynamic models using Tanzanian seasonal forecasts and finds this process uses far less computational power.

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Even if it is possible to reverse the rise of global temperatures after a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, some climate damages triggered at peak warming, including rising sea levels, will be irreversible, according to a new study published today in Nature.

Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

With international efforts on climate action still not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, technological fixes that aim to intentionally alter the Earth’s climate, such as solar geoengineering, might seem like appealing options for tackling global warming. But they come with questions in terms of feasibility, impacts and risks, governance and geopolitics, and who may or may not benefit.

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, funding for loss and damage is an acute need. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran

This April and May, large regions of central Asia were hit by a series of storms resulting in heavy downpours and flash flooding. Researchers assessed what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the weather conditions that caused the floods.

A review of loss and damage in the Caribbean (1994 to 2024)

Loss and damage from climate change has been the lived reality of Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) for decades. Despite efforts to adapt, it is reversing development gains, leaving lasting financial stress, and causing irreparable damage, including the loss of cultural heritage. This report is the first to provide a systematic overview of how Caribbean countries are framing and reporting on loss and damage.

Earth Virtualisation Engines (EVE)

The authors propose creating an international federation of research institutions that improve the quality and accessibility of Earth systems data. The purpose is to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

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