Projections of climate change vulnerability along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2020–2100
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As climate change continues to accelerate, its multifaceted impacts will affect societies across the globe in increasingly complex and uneven ways. This study has now provided one of the most comprehensive assessments to date of how socioeconomic factors interact with climate vulnerability up to the year 2100. This work moves beyond traditional hazard exposure measurements to offer an intricate understanding of intrinsic societal vulnerabilities in the face of evolving climate change.
The research utilises and builds upon the Global Data Lab Vulnerability Index, an innovative metric introduced last year to identify socioeconomic dimensions of vulnerability often overshadowed by purely physical hazard assessments. The Global Data Lab Vulnerability Index framework incorporates seven distinct socioeconomic pillars — including economic capacity, health services, educational attainment, gender equality, and critical infrastructure resilience — enabling a holistic picture of vulnerability that highlights how societal structures influence adaptive potential and risk exposure.
One key insight exposed by the Global Data Lab Vulnerability Index is that nations with robust education systems and healthier populations tend to better anticipate, mitigate, and adapt to climate-related disruptions. Such countries not only possess technical knowledge and resources but also maintain social cohesion that facilitates rapid and effective crisis response. Conversely, areas lacking in essential infrastructure and public services face prolonged recovery times and heightened risks from extreme weather and climate variability.
The study’s ambition extends to projecting these vulnerabilities across three distinct socio-climatic futures outlined by the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework. These scenarios range from continued heavy reliance on fossil fuels and limited mitigation efforts to a dramatic global transition toward renewable energy and sustainable development. Modeling across these divergent paths allows for critical evaluation of whether socioeconomic vulnerabilities will persist, diminish, or intensify as energy systems and policies evolve over the coming decades.
