The multicentennial sea-level rise commitment of pledged near-term emission reduction efforts under the Paris Agreement has not been quantified yet. This report estimates this sea-level rise commitment and find that pledged emissions until 2030 lock in 1m of sea-level rise in the year 2300.
The main contributors to sea-level rise (oceans, glaciers, and ice sheets)respond to climate change on timescales ranging from decades to millennia.
A focus on the 21st century thus fails to provide a complete picture of the consequences of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on future sea-level rise and its long-term impacts.
Here we identify the committed global mean sea-level rise until 2300 from historical emissions since 1750 and the currently pledged NationalDetermined Contributions (NDC) under the Paris Agreement until2030.
Our results indicate that greenhouse gas emissions over this 280-y period result in about 1 m of committed global mean sea-level rise by 2300, with the NDC emissions from 2016 to 2030 corresponding to around 20 cm or 1/5 of that commitment.
We also find that 26 cm(12 cm) of the projected sea-level-rise commitment in 2300 can be attributed to emissions from the top 5 emitting countries (China, United States of America, European Union, India, and Russia) over the1991–2030 (2016–2030) period.
Our findings demonstrate that global and individual country emissions over the first decades of the 21st century alone will cause substantial long-term sea-level rise.
Coastal loss and damage for small islands
This commentary on a paper in Nature Sustainability reviews how the study quantifies the impacts of sea-level rise on small island states and estimates the impacts in terms of cost, land loss and population exposure across all small islands worldwide.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways
Our new method applies sustainability limits and minimises the need for carbon dioxide removal to set key 2030 global targets for renewables, fossil fuels and emissions.
The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty
Here, we investigate the deployment timescales of solar radiation modification and how they are affected by different levels of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty.
Emissions as usual: implications for the Safeguard Mechanism of LNG and coal mine projects
This report examines the implications of committed and proposed developments in the LNG and coal mining sectors for reform of Australia's Safeguard Mechanism.
Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach
Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimise risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds
1.5°C is still in reach to reduce the worst climate risks – but only with immediate mitigation action and shifting finance
How can the EU transform its economy to meet the 1.5°C goal?
What does the 1.5°C goal require from EU climate policy? This 4i-TRACTION policy brief analyses the latest 1.5°C-aligned scenarios and spells out what they imply for EU climate policy.
Institutional decarbonisation scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal
This study analyses six institutional decarbonisation scenarios published between 2020 and mid 2021 (including four from the oil majors and two from the International Energy Agency. It finds that most of the scenarios would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit warming to ‘well below 2 ̊C, let alone 1.5 ̊C, and would exceed the 1.5 ̊C warming limit by a significant margin.