Weak governance is one of the key obstacles for sustainable development. Undoubtedly, improvement of governance comes with a broad range of co-benefits, including countries’ abilities to respond to pressing global challenges such as climate change.
However, beyond the qualitative acknowledgement of its importance, quantifications of future pathways of governance are still lacking. This study provides projections of future governance in line with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways.
We find that under a ‘rocky road’ scenario, 30% of the global population would still live in countries characterized by weak governance in 2050, while under a ‘green road’ scenario, weak governance would be almost entirely overcome over the same time frame.
On the basis of pathways for governance, we estimate the adaptive capacity of countries to climate change. Limits to adaptive capacity exist even under optimistic pathways beyond mid-century. Our findings underscore the importance of accounting for governance in assessments of climate change impacts.
Adaptation constraints in scenarios of socio-economic development
Here, we combine data on documented adaptation from the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative with national macro indicators and assess future changes in adaptation constraints alongside the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, spanning a wide range of future socio-economic development scenarios.
Towards scenario representation of adaptive capacity for global climate change assessments
Climate change adaptation needs, as well as the capacity to adapt, are unequally distributed around the world. Here we propose ways to quantify adaptive capacity within the framework of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, a scenario set widely used by climate impact and integrated assessment models.
De la CDN 1.0 à la CDN 2.0: qu'est-ce qui a changé dans les CDN des PMA de l’Afrique de l'Ouest?
La présente étude examine les premières et les secondes Contributions Déterminées au niveau National des onze pays les moins avancés de l’Afrique de l’Ouest à savoir le Bénin, le Burkina Faso, la Gambie, la Guinée, la Guinée Bissau, le Libéria, le Mali, le Niger, le Sénégal, la Sierra Leone et le Togo.
Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments
Adaptation is a key societal response to reduce the impacts of climate change, yet it is poorly represented in current modelling frameworks. We identify key research gaps and suggest entry points for adaptation in quantitative assessments of climate change to enhance policy guidance.
Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach
Interacting adaptation constraints in the Caribbean highlight the importance of sustained adaptation finance
Climate justice and loss and damage: Hurricane Dorian, Haitians and human rights
Haitian communities were the locus of the majority of deaths and missing people attributed to the 2019 Hurricane Dorian and faced a series of distributional, procedural and recognition injustices. We investigate the historical factors and contemporary conditions of Haitian communities in The Bahamas that resulted in significant inequities, disproportional impacts and infractions of human rights.
Long term strategies: low carbon growth, resilience and prosperity for Least Developed Countries
Long-term, low greenhouse gas emission development strategies provide a beneficial space for Least Developed Countries to set out a visionary blueprint for a resilient, decarbonised future, compatible with limiting warming to 1.5°C.
Accounting for socioeconomic constraints in sustainable irrigation expansion assessments
Fossil gas: a bridge to nowhere
This report assesses how fast fossil gas power generation must be phased out in different parts of the world to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal in reach.