9 November, 2017

“Because the ocean” – achieving the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit

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Ocean systems are particularly vulnerable to climate change, and there is already clear evidence for loss and damage inflicted by climate change on ocean systems. This briefing provides an overview of the latest science on key risks for ocean systems including from sea-level rise, ocean acidification and impacts on coral reefs and other marine and coastal ecosystems.

The analysis underscores the need to limit warming below 1.5°C to limit impacts on ocean systems. Exceeding that warming level will fundamentally affect ocean systems and undermine any other attempts to protect them.

Limiting warming to 1.5°C is of paramount importance for future ocean pathways. This means that the most urgent step to protect oceans is to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions in line with what is needed to meet the Paris Agreement 1.5°C limit.

Publications

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

New study finds the devastating floods in Nepal late September were exacerbated by rapid urbanisation and climate change. The analysis found the relentless rain, which fell on saturated ground in the late monsoon, was made at least 10% heavier and 70% more likely by climate change.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach

Seasonal forecasting of atmospheric parameters is important in various fields including agriculture. This study tests how machine learning can complement dynamic models using Tanzanian seasonal forecasts and finds this process uses far less computational power.

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Even if it is possible to reverse the rise of global temperatures after a temporary overshoot of 1.5°C, some climate damages triggered at peak warming, including rising sea levels, will be irreversible, according to a new study published today in Nature.

Calculating the loss and damage finance gap: a scoping and feasibility exercise

At COP28, delegates agreed to operationalise a fund to compensate vulnerable countries coping with loss and damage caused by climate change. This report proposes a method for how to calculate how much finance the Global South needs for loss and damage.

Economic and non-economic loss and damage: a harmful dichotomy?

Loss and damage is treated as comprising separate ‘economic’ and ‘non-economic’ dimensions. This commentary argues that the two are inextricably linked and applied research should account for the multifaceted and cascading nature of loss and damage.

Fracking the Kimberley: the Canning Basin development plans

We've calculated the climate implications of fracking the Canning basin, part of the remote and pristine Kimberley region in Western Australia. Four companies have their eyes on this region, home to the endangered bilby.

Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

With international efforts on climate action still not on track to limit warming to 1.5°C, technological fixes that aim to intentionally alter the Earth’s climate, such as solar geoengineering, might seem like appealing options for tackling global warming. But they come with questions in terms of feasibility, impacts and risks, governance and geopolitics, and who may or may not benefit.

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

With climate extremes hitting nations across the globe, disproportionately burdening vulnerable developing countries, funding for loss and damage is an acute need. Attribution science can provide useful information for decision makers.

Australia's global fossil fuel carbon footprint

This report unpacks the global carbon footprint from Australia's exported fossil fuels, especially coal and gas; exports that are set to continue at the same level through to 2035, threatening the 1.5˚C warming limit.
Australia has a global carbon footprint that far exceeds its economic size and population - and is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of those emissions coming from its fossil fuel exports.

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Current climate policies are putting Earth on a path to a high risk of triggering climatic tipping points – even if temperatures return to below 1.5°C of global warming after a period of overshoot. A new study finds that the risk of crossing these thresholds increases with every additional 0.1 °C of overshoot above 1.5 °C and strongly accelerates above 2.0 °C. These risks can be minimised if stringent emissions reductions are taken in the next decade, and net zero greenhouse gas emissions are met and maintained.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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