The Paris Agreement sets a long-term temperature goal of holding the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C, and pursuing efforts to limit this to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Here, we present an overview of science and policy aspects related to this goal and analyse the implications for mitigation pathways.
We show examples of discernible differences in impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C warming. At the same time, most available low emission scenarios at least temporarily exceed the 1.5°C limit before 2100. The legacy of temperature overshoots and the feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5°C, or below, thus become central elements of a post-Paris science agenda.
The near-term mitigation targets set by countries for the 2020–2030 period are insufficient to secure the achievement of the temperature goal. An increase in mitigation ambition for this period will determine the Agreement's effectiveness in achieving its temperature goal.
The analysis, written by a team of scientists who have published key research papers on the science, impacts and policy aspects of the 1.5˚C limit, is a centrepiece of a collection by Nature Climate Change, Nature Geoscience and Nature on ‘Targeting 1.5°C’.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways
Our new method applies sustainability limits and minimises the need for carbon dioxide removal to set key 2030 global targets for renewables, fossil fuels and emissions.
The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty
Here, we investigate the deployment timescales of solar radiation modification and how they are affected by different levels of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty.
Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach
Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimise risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds
How can the EU transform its economy to meet the 1.5°C goal?
What does the 1.5°C goal require from EU climate policy? This 4i-TRACTION policy brief analyses the latest 1.5°C-aligned scenarios and spells out what they imply for EU climate policy.
Institutional decarbonisation scenarios evaluated against the Paris Agreement 1.5°C goal
This study analyses six institutional decarbonisation scenarios published between 2020 and mid 2021 (including four from the oil majors and two from the International Energy Agency. It finds that most of the scenarios would be classified as inconsistent with the Paris Agreement as they fail to limit warming to ‘well below 2 ̊C, let alone 1.5 ̊C, and would exceed the 1.5 ̊C warming limit by a significant margin.
An emission pathway classification reflecting the Paris Agreement climate objectives
When categorising pathways in line with the Paris Agreement, the focus has been put on the temperature outcome. Here we propose a pathway based on emission reduction objectives that reflect the climate criteria set out in the Paris Agreement.
No time for complacency: without closing the 2030 gap, net zero targets cannot prevent severe climate impacts
Fossil gas: a bridge to nowhere
This report assesses how fast fossil gas power generation must be phased out in different parts of the world to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal in reach.