Australia has a global carbon footprint that far exceeds its economic size and population - and is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of those emissions coming from its fossil fuel exports.

In this report, we calculate the cumulative fossil CO2 emissions from Australia's fossil fuel exports 1961-2023 at 30 billion tonnes of CO2. But under current government policies this is set to increase by 50% over the next decade to 2035. Along with domestic CO2 emissions, this would consume 9% of the remaining global carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C

It is frequently argued, by politicians, industry leaders, and some media, that Australia’s contribution to climate change is comparatively small, and its actions inconsequential relative to other big polluters.

There are numerous issues with this argument. For one, Australia’s domestic GHG emissions per capita are amongst the highest in the world. Australia is also one of the world’s largest exporters of fossil fuels. While fossil fuel production also contributes substantially to Australia’s domestic territorial emissions, the vast majority of emissions from Australia's fossil fuels occur outside of its borders when they are combusted and/or used overseas.

So, while state and federal governments, and the fossil fuel industry to an even greater extent, profit from those exported fossil fuels, very little of the emissions that occur from those fuels are attributed to Australia under the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement reporting frameworks. This report explores Australia’s fossil fuel exports and its exported emissions and contextualises those relative to global fossil fuel exports and global emissions.

We examine Australia’s historical fossil fuel exports in the context of domestic consumption, exports of other major fossil fuel states, and importing countries. We also quantify the impact Australia’s fossil fuel production has on its domestic territorial emissions and its Paris Agreement commitments, in addition to the exported emissions from those fuels.

We also explore Australia’s projected fossil fuel exports out to 2035, the total GHG emissions that would result from production and end-use of those fossil fuels, and how those emissions benchmark against 1.5°C compatible pathways for global CO₂ emissions.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

This briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Ce rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse.

Kipppunkte und kaskadische Kippdynamiken im Klimasystem

Dieser im Auftrag des deutschen Umweltbundesamtes erstellte Bericht befasst sich mit Kippelementen - sensible Komponenten des Erdsystems, die bei Überschreiten kritischer Schwellenwerte (Kipppunkte) irreversiblen Veränderungen ausgesetzt werden können. Er unterstreicht, dass selbstverstärkende Mechanismen zwischen diesen Elementen zu schnellen, irreversiblen Veränderungen führen können.

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

This peer-reviewed paper analyses what happens in an 'overshoot scenario' - where temperature rise peaks just above 1.5°C, but then return below it by the end of the century. It concludes that despite a drop in warming, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades after peak warming, demonstrating the value of limiting peak temperatures to as low as possible.

Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach

Based on scenarios underlying the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report, in this paper we construct a suite of scenarios that combine the following elements: (a) two quantifications of a moral claim to the remaining carbon space by South Asia, and Africa, (b) a 'highest possible emission reduction' effort by developed regions, and (c) a corresponding range for other developing regions. Our findings raise important questions of perspectives on equity in the context of the Paris Agreement including on the critical importance of climate finance.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Australia's global fossil fuel carbon footprint

Publications

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Kipppunkte und kaskadische Kippdynamiken im Klimasystem

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information

2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach

Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimise risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds

1.5°C is still in reach to reduce the worst climate risks – but only with immediate mitigation action and shifting finance

How can the EU transform its economy to meet the 1.5°C goal?