Due to insufficient action in recent years, the world will very likely reach 1.5°C of warming by the early 2030s. This means the world is headed towards a period of overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit. This new study shows how to limit the overshoot of 1.5°C to the lowest possible level and return warming back well below 1.5°C by 2100 by looking at the highest possible ambition that could be undertaken by countries, starting in 2025.

The high risks and damages of overshooting 1.5°C have been well established by the scientific community. Policy needs to now focus on limiting both the magnitude and duration of overshoot to bring warming back below 1.5°C before 2100.

Overshooting 1.5°C does not mean we need change the Paris Agreement’s goals, but rather double down on their implementation. 1.5°C was chosen for good reason. Ten years on from Paris, the science is starker than ever – 1.5°C is planetary limit beyond which climate impacts escalate and risk triggering catastrophic tipping points.

Legally, morally and politically, the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit stands. It now acts as a North Star, guiding ambition and action for the world to avoid long-term overshoot of 1.5ºC and the catastrophic impacts this would entail.

Global energy and emissions pathways have been a critical line of evidence to help inform what highest possible ambition could entail. However, the 1.5°C-aligned pathways assessed in the most recent IPCC cycle (AR6) are becoming increasingly outdated. Since their creation five years ago, the world has failed to cut emissions, sending global temperatures racing towards the 1.5°C limit. On the other hand, in the last five years renewable energy and other zero-carbon technologies have decreased substantially in cost and are far more cost-competitive than anticipated and can be scaled up faster.

Our new Highest Possible Ambition scenario updates these pathways, starting from today’s emission levels (2025) and energy market dynamics to achieve the safest possible temperature outcome within physical, technological and economic feasibility limits. It provides an updated evidence base on how to achieve the Paris goal, starting from where we find ourselves in 2025.

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Publications

What has the Paris Agreement done for us?

Ten years on, the Paris Agreement is working, but not nearly fast enough. Since 2015 it has become the essential organising framework for global climate action: uniting countries behind the 1.5°C temperature limit and net-zero goals, reshaping science and policy, helping mobilise climate finance and clean-technology investment, and driving national reforms that otherwise would not have happened. This briefing lays out 22 ways it is changing the 21st century for the better.

Clearing the air on methane: a global review of emissions, ambition and the policy landscape

This report assesses emissions, targets, and policies for 72 countries that collectively account for over 90% of global methane emissions, providing a robust foundation for understanding progress and gaps in global methane mitigation efforts.

The responsibility of investor-owned carbon majors to contribute to direct air carbon capture and storage investment

New study finds world’s largest fossil fuel and cement companies should shoulder a major share of the investment needed to develop carbon removal technologies.

State of Climate Action 2025

This report card on climate action shows that global efforts fall far short of what’s needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. While most indicators are heading in the right direction, not a single one of the 45 indicators is on track for 2030.

Hard to abate: a justification for delay?

Claims from both the iron and steel - and cement - sectors that their emissions are "hard to abate" is slowing down real progress these sectors could be making on cutting emissions. This report unpacks the reality.

The global climate risks of Asia’s expansive carbon capture and storage plans

This report looks at the climate and economic implications of Asia’s promotion of
carbon capture and storage (CCS) to reduce fossil fuel emissions.

Why stronger 2030 targets along with 1.5°C-aligned 2035 targets are essential

Both stronger 2030 targets and 1.5°C-aligned 2035 NDCs are needed to keep 1.5°C alive, argues this briefing. Without both, we risk overshooting the 1.5°C limit higher and longer, crossing dangerous tipping points, and losing sight of the Paris Agreement goals.

Production Gap Report 2025

Governments plan to produce more than double the fossil fuels than is consistent with 1.5°C - this 'production gap' has widened since they committed to transitioning away from fossil fuels at COP28 in 2023

Submission to the Australian Climate Change Authority

Climate Analytics Australia's submisson to Australia's CCA on its 2025 annual progress report on climate change.

Effect of discontinuous fair-share emissions allocations immediately based on equity

This study provides an equity-based approach to allocating national emissions trajectories. It finds that emissions targets of G7 countries, Russia and China are responsible for most of the global 2030 ambition gap, while only some countries align with their 1.5 °C allocation.

A blueprint for climate leadership: 1.5-aligned targets for Australia

This report answers the question: what would science-based, 1.5˚C-compatible 2030 and 2035 targets, and a net zero roadmap, look like for Australia?

Decarbonising China's cement industry

Cement is an integral base material for the global economy, but it poses a major climate challenge. Given China produces more than half the world’s cement, generating 13-15% of its national CO2 emissions, decarbonising this sector is critical to meeting China’s climate goals.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Rescuing 1.5°C: new evidence on the highest possible ambition to deliver the Paris Agreement