19 December, 2025

AEMO's gas projections for Western Australia: analysis

Authors

Piers Verstegen

AEMO has released its first longer-term 20 year projections for gas use in the WA domestic gas market, as part of its 2025 Gas Statement of Opportunities (GSOO).

While these projections see a decline in gas demand over the long term, AEMO’s projections see a significant growth in the short term, which would see WA domestic gas demand reach record levels in the early 2030’s.

The projections indicate that under current WA policy settings, new mining and industrial projects will significantly increase gas demand, especially in off-grid areas. At the same time, the use of fossil gas to generate electricity on the South West grid is projected to increase as coal-fired generators are retired by 2030.

AEMO's projected growth in gas demand reflects the slow rollout of large-scale renewable energy in WA, especially in off-grid areas, and a lack of effective requirements and support for decarbonisation in WA’s key industrial sectors.

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