Cutting methane, limiting overshoot: pathways for Paris alignment

The world is on track to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C warming limit as early as 2030. How far and for how long temperatures remain above this threshold will depend on actions taken this decade, with rapid methane reductions playing an especially critical role. Since methane is a potent, short-lived pollutant, rapid cuts in methane emissions offer one of the most effective levers to slow warming in the coming decades, reduce the level and duration of overshoot, and lower the risks of irreversible and devastating climate impacts.

Methane is increasingly recognized as a critical lever for limiting overshoot and supporting long-term temperature decline. The Global Methane Pledge, as well as the rise in national methane targets, sectoral regulations, industry-led commitments, dedicated public and private funding initiatives, and new monitoring initiatives highlight a growing consensus that deep methane cuts are essential to setting the world on a path back to well below 1.5°C by 2100. In July 2026, the United Nations Secretary General called for urgent action to reduce methane emissions from energy, waste, and agriculture, noting that while the world may be on a path to overshoot the 1.5°C limit, rapid reductions in these sectors – especially in energy – are one of the most effective ways to limit the duration and magnitude of overshoot.

Despite this momentum, global methane emissions continue to rise, putting the world further off track from climate targets. In 2020, the baseline year for the Global Methane Pledge, average global anthropogenic methane emissions across three datasets – PRIMAP, EDGAR, and CEDS – were 317 Mt CH4. Since then, emissions have continued to rise, reaching an average of 328 Mt CH4 in 2023 – a 3.5% increase relative to 2020. This trend is pushing the world further off track from the Global Methane Pledge target of 30% reductions below 2020 levels by 2030, and as a result, methane emissions must now decline by around 32% from current levels to achieve the Global Methane Pledge.

This report assesses the scale of methane reductions required this decade and beyond to align with the temperature limit of the Paris Agreement. Across Paris-aligned pathways, we find that methane emissions must decline by 17% to 33% from 2020 levels by 2030, and by 19% to 35% from current emissions levels.