In the first global stock take of the Paris Agreement (GST-1) the world agreed to “transition away from fossil fuels in a just, orderly and equitable manner” (UNFCCC 2023). Achieving consensus on what transitioning away from fossil fuels (TAFF) means has been difficult. However, diplomatic and political momentum around TAFF has been growing, including via the Brazilian COP30 Presidency’s global roadmap initiative (UNFCCC 2025) and the International Conference on Transitioning away from Fossil Fuels held at Santa Marta in April 2026 (Climate Analytics 2026c). Meanwhile, the US-Israel war on Iran and the ensuing energy crisis has only underlined the fundamental vulnerabilities of a global economy addicted to fossil fuels and emphasised the economic and security benefits of transitioning away from the fossil economy.

Central to any TAFF is a roadmap that sets out the course of action. While agreement is growing around the need to transition away, questions remain on how fast and how deep any transition should be at the global/national/sectoral level. The Santa Marta conference concluded with a commitment to collaborate on building national and regional TAFF roadmaps, which is a critical and welcome step.

National roadmaps should be anchored in clear principles to ensure credibility and effectiveness, including common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities (CBDR-RC). They should go beyond merely setting out phase-out timelines and targets but also address the myriad non-technical factors that often inform and constrain ambition and cover a comprehensive set of planning elements including just transition frameworks, fossil fuel subsidy reform, economic diversification, participatory governance and more.

They also need to align with the latest science – which shows that while we are entering an era of overshooting the 1.5ºC goal, pursuing highest possible mitigation ambition from now can still minimise the duration and magnitude of overshoot and get temperatures back significantly below 1.5ºC before 2100. To do this, reaching net zero CO2 by or before mid-century and reaching net zero GHG emissions soon after is critical.

In this brief, we present some timelines on what TAFF could look like at both the global and national level, building on the Highest Possible Ambition (HPA) scenario released last year by Climate Analytics and PIK (Climate Analytics and PIK 2025). Focusing on fossil fuel demand, we provide data on the fossil fuel transition for a selected set of 15 countries.

This information is not meant to replace the detailed country-driven process of developing TAFF roadmaps. It also only covers fossil fuel demand, with more data on fossil fuel production pathways planned for release in autumn 2026 by Climate Analytics. However, it provides one key line of evidence – what a transition aligned with highest possible ambition that minimises overshoot would look like. This can help inform and shape discussions around TAFF at the national level. Climate Analytics stands ready to support countries and organisations exploring what ambitious TAFF roadmaps look like as we move forwards from Santa Marta towards COP31 in Antalya and beyond.

Pathways to Implementing GST Recommendations in the Caribbean

This report examines how the Caribbean can operationalise the Global Stocktake's (GST) “energy package” within its structural constraints. It assesses current transition targets, proposes guidance, and establishes benchmarks to support the global objective of limiting warming to 1.5°C – including country deepdives for Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Belize, and Trinidad and Tobago.

Rescuing shipping's Net Zero Framework

The International Maritime Organization's (IMO) proposed Net Zero Framework (NZF) offers a critical pathway for reducing emissions in international shipping and aligning the sector with global climate goals. This Climate Action Tracker briefing examines the potential temperature warming implications of the NZF, comparied with a business-as-usual scenario.

Troubled waters: risks and realities of blue carbon in climate action

Carbon stored in coastal and marine ecosystems, such as mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows (blue carbon) is viewed as a potential bridge between mitigation, adaptation, and climate finance. However, as this brief explores, the viability of blue carbon as a mitigation option is questionable due to the fragility of these systems and the use of blue carbon as offsets counterproductive.

Catalysing LT-LEDS implementation in Africa: Insights, bottlenecks, and solutions from country experiences

This report examines how African countries are advancing from the design to the implementation of their Long-Term Low-Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), drawing on case studies from Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Kenya, Nigeria, Rwanda South Africa, Rwanda, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, as well as extensive desk research and comparative analysis.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5°C pathways

Comment

Highest possible ambition: science-aligned fossil fuel phase-out pathways

Publications

Never let an energy crisis go to waste: government responses to the US-Israel war on Iran

Pathways to Implementing GST Recommendations in the Caribbean

How import rules can cut global methane emissions

Submission to the Australian Senate Select Committee on the Taxation of Gas Resources

Rescuing shipping's Net Zero Framework

Decarbonising electricity, cement, iron and steel, and chemicals in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia

AEMO's gas projections for Western Australia: analysis

Troubled waters: risks and realities of blue carbon in climate action

Catalysing LT-LEDS implementation in Africa: Insights, bottlenecks, and solutions from country experiences

Three key near-term actions could bend the warming curve; bringing projected warming below 2°C

Climate Action Tracker: 2025 warming projection update

Real zero is within reach