Pathways to Implementing GST Recommendations in the Caribbean
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The Caribbean’s pursuit of a 1.5°C aligned energy transition stands at a critical inflection point. With renewable energy penetration averaging approximately 12% across CARICOM as of 2022, the region faces the dual challenge of accelerating deployment while safeguarding energy security and economic resilience.
The Global Stocktake (GST) has called for the tripling of renewable energy capacity and the doubling of energy efficiency improvements by 2030. While ambitious, this target is neither unrealistic nor unattainable in the Caribbean context. The region’s estimated collective technical potential of over 4,500 MW of solar, 2,000 MW of wind, and 3,800 MW of geothermal, comfortably exceeds the 1,300–2,000 MW required to meet these benchmarks. The central constraint, therefore, is not resource availability, but the alignment of policy, institutions, and finance to translate potential into delivery.
This report, together with its annexed country studies, examines how the Caribbean can operationalise the GST’s “energy package” within its structural constraints. It assesses current transition targets, proposes guidance, and establishes benchmarks to support the global objective of limiting warming to 1.5°C. At its core, the analysis highlights a necessary shift from fragmented, project-based implementation toward coordinated, programmatic action at both national and regional levels.
The Caribbean Sustainable Energy Roadmap and Strategy (C-SERMS) remains the region’s most established framework for guiding this transition. Since its adoption in 2009, it has provided a structured basis for policy reform, investment coordination, and progress monitoring. Its alignment with GST objectives and its integration into Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), offers a practical pathway to scale ambition while avoiding duplication of effort. Embedding GST targets within NDCs also strengthens investment planning and improves access to international climate finance, including support from the Green Climate Fund and other development partners.
Despite this foundation, progress across the region remains uneven. Structural constraints continue to limit the pace and scale of deployment. Fragmented regulatory frameworks, aging grid infrastructure, and limited access to affordable finance remain persistent barriers. In many jurisdictions, electricity sectors are still governed by outdated legislation that does not accommodate modern renewable technologies, while licensing processes are often slow and opaque. Simultaneously, gaps in technical and financial data undermine investor confidence and hinder the development of bankable projects.
These structural issues are compounded by external vulnerabilities. Caribbean economies remain highly exposed to global energy price volatility, climate-related shocks, and constrained fiscal space driven by debt. Governments must therefore balance the urgency of transition with the imperatives of affordability, reliability, and macroeconomic stability. Addressing these challenges will require coordinated policy reform, strengthened institutions, and innovative financing mechanisms tailored to small island developing states.
Country experiences across Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Belize, and Trinidad and Tobago illustrate both the diversity of national pathways and the common conditions for success.
Belize
Trinidad & Tobago
Saint Lucia
Saint Kitts and Nevis
Saint Lucia demonstrates a structured, data-driven approach to transition planning. Through its National Energy Policy, National Energy Transition Strategy, and Integrated Resource Plan, the country has established a coherent framework for investment. Its target of achieving 50% renewable electricity generation by 2030, up from approximately 5% in 2023, is supported by scenario modelling that balances cost, reliability, and emissions reduction.
Saint Kitts and Nevis highlights how ambition and innovation can compensate for scale constraints. Its target of 100% renewable electricity by 2028 is supported by utility-scale solar and battery storage investments expected to significantly reduce diesel dependence. Complementary geothermal development, supported by the Caribbean Development Bank, demonstrates the role of blended finance in de-risking projects.
Belize reflects a pragmatic, institution-focused approach. Emphasis on data systems, procurement reform, and workforce development has strengthened its ability to scale renewable investment. Its efforts to standardise Requests for Proposals and Power Purchase Agreements, alongside participation in regional data platforms, underscore the importance of transparency and consistency in reducing transaction costs.
Trinidad and Tobago presents a more complex transition pathway. As a hydrocarbon-based economy, it must balance decarbonisation with economic dependence on fossil fuels. However, its industrial base and technical capacity position it to support emerging clean energy sectors. Ongoing regulatory reforms and a “just transition” framework aimed at workforce alignment provide a model for managing socio-economic impacts.
Collectively, these cases demonstrate that while national contexts differ, successful transitions are consistently underpinned by enabling policy environments, institutional capacity, and strategic coordination.
Delivering on GST and C-SERMS objectives will require a rapid scaling of implementation. Achieving the region’s 2030 targets will necessitate the addition of approximately 1,300 –2,000 MW of renewable capacity, implying significant annual growth rates in the latter part of the decade. While technically feasible, this transition demands a coordinated regional approach, as such, three immediate priorities emerge. First, institutionalising data transparency through platforms such as CARICOM is essential to support planning, monitoring, and investment. Second, C-SERMS must be updated and operationalised to strengthen its role in harmonising regulatory frameworks, coordinating capacity-building, and facilitating joint procurement. Third, expanding access to blended finance mechanisms will be critical to improving project viability and mobilising the estimated US$5 –7 billion required for the region’s transition.
Integrating GST targets within NDCs provides a practical mechanism to advance these priorities. Beyond improving coherence and accountability, this approach enables the development of comprehensive investment strategies aligned with international climate finance. Well-structured, scalable project pipelines will be essential to attracting both public and private capital.
The Caribbean’s energy transition is both a necessity and an opportunity. By addressing structural barriers and leveraging regional cooperation, the region can build energy systems that are more resilient, sustainable, and economically competitive. The pathway to 2030 will require urgency, coordination, and sustained political commitment. However, with the right alignment of policy, finance, and institutional capacity, the Caribbean is well-positioned not only to meet its targets, but to demonstrate how small island developing states can lead in the global energy transition.
