Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce far more fossil fuels than would be consistent with limiting global warming to between 1.5ºC and 2ºC. Countries are now collectively planning even more fossil fuel production than two years ago, with projected 2030 production exceeding levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5ºC by more than 120%.

Taken together, governments now plan even higher levels of coal production to 2035, and gas production to 2050, than they did in 2023. Planned oil production continues to increase to 2050. These plans undermine countries’ Paris Agreement commitments, and go against expectations that under current policies global demand for coal, oil, and gas will peak before 2030.

Most of the 20 countries profiled in this report continue to plan fossil fuel production at levels inconsistent with their net zero climate ambitions.

The continued collective failure of governments to curb fossil fuel production and lower global emissions means that future production will need to decline more steeply to compensate. Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century, as the Paris Agreement calls for, will require cutting fossil fuel production and use to the very lowest levels possible.

Achieving these reductions will require deliberate, coordinated policies to ensure a just transition away from fossil fuels. While a few major fossilfuel-producing countries have begun to align production plans with national and international climate goals, most still have not.

As governments submit their third round of nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement, they must commit to reversing the continued expansion of global fossil fuel production, explicitly integrate plans for reducing production within wider energy transition efforts, and redouble cooperative efforts to ensure a just transition globally.

This report is produced by the SEI, Climate Analytics and IISD.

Publications

Submission to the Australian Climate Change Authority

Climate Analytics Australia's submisson to Australia's CCA on its 2025 annual progress report on climate change.

Effect of discontinuous fair-share emissions allocations immediately based on equity

This study provides an equity-based approach to allocating national emissions trajectories. It finds that emissions targets of G7 countries, Russia and China are responsible for most of the global 2030 ambition gap, while only some countries align with their 1.5 °C allocation.

A blueprint for climate leadership: 1.5-aligned targets for Australia

This report answers the question: what would science-based, 1.5˚C-compatible 2030 and 2035 targets, and a net zero roadmap, look like for Australia?

Decarbonising China's cement industry

Cement is an integral base material for the global economy, but it poses a major climate challenge. Given China produces more than half the world’s cement, generating 13-15% of its national CO2 emissions, decarbonising this sector is critical to meeting China’s climate goals.

1.5˚C aligned climate targets for Western Australia

Western Australia is the only Australian state without an emissions reduction target. Here, we recommend 1.5˚C aligned targets for WA.

Latest science on the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement

This briefing provides a comprehensive overview of what the science is saying now about the 1.5°C warming limit – what it means, what is at stake, and what actions are needed to limit the risks of overshoot and safeguard a liveable future.

The full implications of Australia's North West Shelf decision

On 28 May 2025, Australian Environment Minister Murray Watt made the first step towards what looks set to be a final decision to approve Woodside Energy's North West Shelf LNG plant in Western Australia through to 2070.

Addressing challenges in the land sector under the Paris Agreement

This report examines how loose land-sector rules under the Paris Agreement enable countries to overstate carbon removals and delay essential fossil fuel emissions cuts.

The impact of global climate pledges on national action: a snapshot across Asia

A detailed analysis of eight Asian countries' climate action compared with global pledges.

Fair carbon removal obligations under climate response uncertainty

We assess the level of ‘preventive’ CDR needed to draw warming down to 1.5°C in case of a stronger-than-average Earth System response.

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

We have produced factsheets for Australia, Brazil, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA showing 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.

Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways

This study presents a new dataset of annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways (when the 1.5 °C of global warming limit is exceeded). The data offers a unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including when temperature thresholds might be exceeded, and by how much.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Production Gap Report 2025