Why stronger 2030 targets along with 1.5°C-aligned 2035 targets are essential

This decade is the critical decade for climate action for a reason. It will never be cheaper or easier to make headway towards limiting warming to the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit than it is now.

Yet, the first half of the decade has been lost to insufficient action. Calls made at COP26 in Glasgow to strengthen 2030 targets have so far gone unheeded. At COP28 in Dubai, the Paris Agreement’s Global Stocktake called for 2035 NDCs to align 1.5°C. To-date, this call seems to have been largely ignored.

Meanwhile, emissions have continued to rise, and climate impacts have truly begun to bite. Any further delay in action will only increase costs and lead to a substantial overshoot of the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit, escalating climate impacts and the risk of crossing critical Earth system tipping points with irreversible damages.

The third generation of NDCs due this year is our best opportunity to course correct in to keep peak warming this century close to the Paris Agreement’s warming limit.

It has become clear, however that the new 2035 NDCs submitted to date, for the most part, do not align with a level of action needed by countries to limit global warming even close to with 1.5°C. In addition, countries are not upgrading their 2030 targets to bring them closer to 1.5°C alignment.

This exploratory analysis examines the consequences of this failure and what would be needed in terms of stronger targets to limit peak temperatures as close as possible to Paris Agreement’s 1.5ºC limit.

We find that:

• If action is deferred and 2030 targets remain unchanged from present levels, and action by 2035 is weakened as a result, the world faces peak warming of at least 1.8°C, and an overshoot of 1.5°C lasting up to 70 years.  Global temperatures would still be above 1.5°C by 2100. This would be a clear breach of the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal.
  
• 2030 targets are essential to keeping 1.5°C in reach even with deep 2035 targets. Whilst the lack action over the first half of this decade means that halving emissions by 2030 may no longer be feasible, we show that a substantial increase in action and ambition by 2030 can bend the emissions curve, putting the world on a path towards 1.5°C-aligned emission levels by 2035. This Sustained action scenario would still have adverse consequences, but the overshoot of 1.5°C might peak below 1.7°C, and the duration of overshoot would be up to two decades shorter than in the deferred action scenario. With sustained action global mean warming can be brought back below 1.5°C before 2100.

The critical message from this analysis is that, despite the lack of action to date, ambitious and sustained action by governments — both to improve their policies and targets for 2030 and to adopt 1.5ºC-aligned 2035 NDCs — could reduce the scale of 1.5°C overshoot by 0.15ºC and shorten its duration by a few decades. Overshooting the warming limit is highly dangerous and must be limited as much as possible to avoid escalating economic, health, ecological and other risks.

This work underscores the critical importance of strengthening 2030 targets, alongside 1.5°C-aligned 2035 NDCs, to keep the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal in reach.

Sustained and rapid action in line with the scenario here is achievable. The record-breaking expansion of key technologies, including renewables, battery storage, electric vehicles and heat pumps are already revolutionising our energy systems. Leveraging these shifts to peak global emissions in the very near term is possible and would lay the foundation for deeper cuts in the 2030s.

Ambitious action in 2030/35 can limit the extent and duration of overshoot and put global temperatures on a pathway to below 1.5ºC before 2100. New pathways that show the routes still open to 1.5°C starting from today’s emission levels are being developed by Climate Analytics and partners and will be launched at COP30.

The critical decade is not yet over; we still have time to act.

By ratcheting up 2030 ambition and aligning 2035 targets with 1.5 °C, countries can keep the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal in sight, and with it a safer, more liveable world for all.