One of Australia's most pristine and iconic regions, Western Australia's Kimberley, could see at least 2,000 fracking wells and as many as 8,700 over the next 20 years, for fossil gas production that would seriously undermine Australia's ability to meet its climate goals.

Fracking for fossil gas threatens a unique and iconic landscape: it would lay waste to the Kimberley, the greatest, most intact tropical savannah in the world, the only place in Australia that has not seen a mammal extinction, but where the ecology is itself threatened by global warming caused by ongoing fossil fuel emissions.

Four companies, Black Mountain, Buru Energy, Theia Energy and Rey Resources, have petroleum leases where fracking is allowed in the Canning basin in the Kimberley region, where exploration licences cover around 36,000 km2, equivalent to about 8.5% of the region.

From the analysis, the "proposed development" scenario would support around seven million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) a year, and a "large-scale development" scenario would support about 29 million tonnes a year of LNG per year - or 8,700 wells.

Supply of such a large volume of gas appears important to the survival of Woodside Energy's Burrup Hub and the report notes that Woodside has expressed an interest in gas from this region.

The 2018 Western Australia Independent Scientific Panel Inquiry into Hydraulic Fracture Stimulation recommended that the contribution to Australian anthropogenic upstream GHG emissions from onshore fields in WA must be 0.5% or less of 2016 Australian GHG emissions.

In contrast, the Climate Analytics report shows upstream emissions from the Canning Basin? - emissions that arise from production, transport and manufacture of LNG could generate up to 16% of Australia’s 2016 emissions, 32 times the Inquiry's recommendation.

Australia's global fossil fuel carbon footprint

This report unpacks the global carbon footprint from Australia's exported fossil fuels, especially coal and gas; exports that are set to continue at the same level through to 2035, threatening the 1.5˚C warming limit.
Australia has a global carbon footprint that far exceeds its economic size and population - and is responsible for around 4.5% of global fossil carbon dioxide emissions, with 80% of those emissions coming from its fossil fuel exports.

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

This briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Ce rapport examine ce que la limite de 1,5 °C signifie en termes d'adaptation et de pertes et dommages pour les pays et régions les plus vulnérables. Il constate qu'il est essentiel de ralentir le réchauffement pour nous donner le temps de nous adapter et pour éviter des pertes et des dommages irréversibles. Même si le réchauffement dépasse 1,5 °C, nous pouvons le faire baisser à nouveau en réduisant les émissions de manière ambitieuse.

Kipppunkte und kaskadische Kippdynamiken im Klimasystem

Dieser im Auftrag des deutschen Umweltbundesamtes erstellte Bericht befasst sich mit Kippelementen - sensible Komponenten des Erdsystems, die bei Überschreiten kritischer Schwellenwerte (Kipppunkte) irreversiblen Veränderungen ausgesetzt werden können. Er unterstreicht, dass selbstverstärkende Mechanismen zwischen diesen Elementen zu schnellen, irreversiblen Veränderungen führen können.

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

This peer-reviewed paper analyses what happens in an 'overshoot scenario' - where temperature rise peaks just above 1.5°C, but then return below it by the end of the century. It concludes that despite a drop in warming, regional climate changes may only be partially reversed in the decades after peak warming, demonstrating the value of limiting peak temperatures to as low as possible.

Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach

Based on scenarios underlying the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report, in this paper we construct a suite of scenarios that combine the following elements: (a) two quantifications of a moral claim to the remaining carbon space by South Asia, and Africa, (b) a 'highest possible emission reduction' effort by developed regions, and (c) a corresponding range for other developing regions. Our findings raise important questions of perspectives on equity in the context of the Paris Agreement including on the critical importance of climate finance.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Comment

Fracking the Kimberley: the Canning Basin development plans

Publications

Australia's global fossil fuel carbon footprint

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

Le seuil de +1,5°C et le risque de dépassement de ce seuil

Kipppunkte und kaskadische Kippdynamiken im Klimasystem

Limited reversal of regional climate signals in overshoot scenarios

Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information

2030 targets aligned to 1.5°C: evidence from the latest global pathways

The deployment length of solar radiation modification: an interplay of mitigation, net-negative emissions and climate uncertainty

Uncompensated claims to fair emission space risk putting Paris Agreement goals out of reach

Only halving emissions by 2030 can minimise risks of crossing cryosphere thresholds

1.5°C is still in reach to reduce the worst climate risks – but only with immediate mitigation action and shifting finance