The Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal is to be achieved on the basis of equity. Accomplishing this goal will require carbon dioxide removal (CDR), yet existing plans for CDR deployment are insufficient to meet potential global needs, and equitable approaches for distributing CDR responsibilities between nations are lacking. This study applies two common burden-sharing principles to show how CDR responsibility could be shared between regions in 1.5°C and 2°C mitigation pathways.

Charts

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Equity approaches

We consider how the burden of deploying CDR over the century could be ‘fairly’ distributed among countries and regions. For this we use two approaches that are based on the widely used equity principles of responsibility, equality and capability: 'cumulative emissions per capita’ (CPCE) a

Temporal evolution of cumulative emissions per capita (CPCE) and GDP per capita (AP).

Model based CDR distribution vs. equity-based CDR distribution: CPCE & AP

Regional distribution of CDR for assessed least-cost pathways in the Integrated Assessment Models versus CDR allocation based on the CPCE and AP equity approaches.

Coloured boxes show the 25th and 75th percentiles across all pathways, with whiskers indicating the 5th and 95th percentiles.

Relationship between near-term emission reductions and long-term CDR burdens

Comparison of cumulative 21st-century CDR fair shares for each region with gross emissions in 2030 for the CPCE and AP equity approaches. Stars show where estimated 2030 emission levels under the current NDCs would fall on the regression lines.

Publications

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Climate justice and loss and damage: perspectives from the global south

This article outlines the loss and damage debate through a climate justice lens with particular emphasis on Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries. It examines the latest developments of the new loss and damage fund including operationalisation.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

Advisory opinion on "Climate emergency and human rights"

This Amicus Curiae is an advisory opinion requested by the republics of Chile and Colombia on "Climate emergency and human rights". It was presented by Climate Analytics Caribbean to the Inter-American Court of Human Rights. It outlines the intricate intersections of climate change, human rights, and state obligations, with a specific emphasis on the unique challenges faced by Caribbean nations.

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference.

Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase-out

The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase-out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase-out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.

No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions

The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.

Submission on Australia's future gas strategy

The Australian government asked for answers to its questions around the future of its gas strategy. This was our submission.

When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?

The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.

Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world

This report presents a detailed methodology for determining the amount of wind and solar capacity that is required for a country to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. While the focus of the report is the method, it includes illustrative benchmarks for Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa.

A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector

The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Fair-share carbon dioxide removal increases major emitter responsibility