Science Assessment and Analysis

Climate science is highly complex and the policy implications are not always clear. We therefore work to advance scientific knowledge on climate science, policy and impacts and make this information accessible to stakeholders working in the international climate change arena.

To do this, we conduct our own research (for example, projecting sea-level rise or evaluating impacts and risks at different levels of warming) and communicate key findings from the scientific literature, and their implications.

Projections of future climate change are subject to uncertainty, as they depend on a range of developments that cannot be foreseen. There remain important limitations to the understanding and modelling of some processes in the climate system. Much of our work is therefore focused on understanding these processes and the probabilities associated with climate impact projections.

Publications

This briefings summarise the impacts of global warming at and above 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Key information is extracted from the Special Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of its sixth assessment report cycle (AR6). These Special Reports represent an invaluable resource to understand the impacts of exceeding 1.5°C and new science published after their compilation has only contributed to an ever clearer picture of the grave consequences of exceeding that limit. In addition to the overview on climate impacts based on the Special Reports, latest information on global mitigation efforts and requirements to meet the 1.5°C limit are also included.  
The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C sent a message of urgency. The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate re-emphasises it and adds the dimensions of legacy of our actions. It shows how changes in ocean and cryosphere will continue for centuries and millennia even after emissions have seized.  
Ocean systems are particularly vulnerable to climate change and are already heavily impacted today. This briefing provides an overview of the latest science including from the latest IPCC special reports on key risks for ocean systems including from sea-level rise, ocean acidification and impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. The analysis underscores the need to limit warming below 1.5°C to limit impacts on ocean systems. It is clearer than ever that exceeding that warming level will fundamentally affect ocean systems and undermine any other attempts to protect them. Limiting warming to 1.5°C remains of paramount importance to safeguard the oceans.  

Projects

Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.