Mitigation Scenarios and Pathways

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.

Latest

One of the world’s leading climate experts says Australia needs to aim for 100 per cent renewables within two decades as part of its efforts to meet climate targets, and it stands to reap enormous economic – and environmental – benefits if it does. Coverage of Climate Analytics' CEO Dr Bill Hare's talk at Keith Roby Memorial Lecture at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia.  
Less than two weeks ago, Alan Finkel told the Australian Senate his landmark report would help Australia meet the commitments it made in Paris to reduce its economy-wide emissions by 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. But his recommendations on the future of the National Electricity Market, released today, appear to fly in the face of those very commitments. With comments from Climate Analytics' Bill Hare.  
A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research.  
Finland and the European Union need to strengthen their climate pledges, rapidly cut emissions and speed up introducing renewables into the energy mix to be in line with the 1.5°C warming limit in the Paris Agreement, according to a new report.  
The actions outlined in the Paris pledges would be expected to lead to global warming of around 3°C. Given that there has already been about 1°C of warming, the measures required to stay below 1.5°C would be beyond heroic. Work by Joeri Rogelj and colleagues suggests that it would mean net emissions having to fall to zero in at most 40 years.  

Publications

The Finkel Review was an opportunity to propose a science-based approach to the short and long-term development of Australia's electricity sector consistent with the low-carbon transformation required to meet the goals and obligations of the Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, should the government accept the minimum electricity sector pathway suggested by the Finkel Review, Australia would very likely not be able to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement, which calls for countries to adopt measures to hold global warming well below 2°C and limit this to 1.5°C.  
A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research. The analysis, written by a team of scientists who have published key research papers on the science, impacts and policy aspects of the 1.5˚C limit, is a centrepiece of a collection by Nature Climate Change, Nature Geoscience and Nature on 'Targeting 1.5°C'  
This document provides briefing points and explains why initial and successive 5 year commitment periods for all Parties are a necessary element of the new agreement to help ensure that the 1.5/2°C goal is met, and how a 10-year commitment period would in fact fail to provide the long-term stability and certainty that Parties seek. It steps through evidence from scientific, economic, regulatory and political perspectives.  

Projects

COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.  
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012  
PREVENT is built around a team of experienced climate scientists and analysts, whose objective is to provide science, policy, strategic and analytical support for delegations of the LDCs and SIDS, backed by science-based models to assess and synthesize climate science. Project Period: 2008 - 2011