28 February, 2025

Just transition discussions at the climate negotiations are in limbo

COP29 concluded with more than a few agenda items left unresolved. One was the 'just transition work programme'. What happened during these negotiations? And how can we ensure a better outcome at COP30?

COP29 concluded with a mixed bag of outcomes. While some progress was made, the finance outcome was deemed mediocre, and negotiation topics that touched on mitigation made insufficient progress.

One key item that was left unresolved was the just transition work programme. What happened during these negotiations? And how can we ensure a better outcome at COP30?

What is the just transition work programme and why is it important?

The just transition work programme was established at COP27, championed by the Egyptian presidency. It has potential to play a key role in supporting the implementation of the Paris Agreement by helping countries develop 1.5oC-aligned transition plans that fit within their specific national contexts and circumstances.

The work programme is distinctive in three ways:

  1. Whole-of-economy focus: it can speak to transitions in often overlooked sectors (e.g., agriculture, tourism) where livelihoods are vulnerable.
  2. Integration of mitigation and adaptation: it bridges the gap between reducing emissions and resilience building, ensuring climate strategies protect workers and frontline communities.
  3. Non-prescriptive: instead of rigid mandates, it offers adaptable frameworks for countries to tailor just transitions to their needs – critical for securing buy-in across diverse economies.

There is no other negotiation item under the Paris Agreement that explicitly links socioeconomic justice to holistic climate action. While just transition topics have been discussed before, namely by the ‘Katowice Committee of Experts on the Impacts of the Implementation of Response Measures’, these discussions had a pointed focus on the impacts of climate policies on the workforce, rather than providing guidance for a whole-of-society approach to climate action.

Ultimately, a well-planned just transition is a crucial enabler of net zero goals, ensuring that climate action does not deepen inequalities, but instead creates sustainable, fair opportunities for all. The insights generated through this work programme could serve as invaluable tools for countries in crafting and updating their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

We have limited time to make the just transition work programme useful

Time is running out. The just transition work programme operates on a three-year timeline, culminating in a 2026 review, meaning that swift action is needed to turn it into a transformative force for inclusive climate action.

The upcoming June 2025 negotiations in Bonn present a crucial opportunity to break the deadlock and push for concrete outcomes. To do so, governments and civil society must focus on ensuring the work programme is practical and results-driven, directly supporting the implementation of NDCs by:

  • Developing sector-specific guidelines for worker retraining and green job creation.
  • Creating metrics to track equitable outcomes, such as gender-responsive employment and community resilience.
  • Aligning climate finance (including COP29’s New Collective Quantified Goal) with justice priorities, ensuring that funding – especially for vulnerable nations – comes in the form of grants, not loans.

Negotiators should focus on two key strategies. Number one, they should avoid duplication and build on existing efforts, like the Katowice Committee of Experts. But, unlike these discussions focusing on impact assessments, the work programme should prioritise forward planning. This could be achieved by:

  • Developing a "Just Transition Toolkit"—a resource with templates for participatory NDC design.
  • Creating a peer-exchange platform where countries can share best practices and lessons learned.

Number two, the Just Transition Work Programme must go beyond the energy sector to address overlooked sectors and social protections e.g., agriculture, fisheries, and tourism.

Over 2.5 billion people depend on agri-food systems. The work programme could, for example, offer guidance to countries on linking subsidy reforms (e.g., redirecting fossil fuel subsidies) to smallholder farmer support and sustainable aquaculture.

It could also outline best practice for protecting vulnerable communities and leaving no one behind. According to the International Labour Organization (ILO), only 18.6% of global workers have access to comprehensive social security coverage, leaving billions unprotected against job losses, health crises, or displacement caused by climate policies or impacts. The Just Transition Work Programme must prioritise adaptive social protection models that empower workers in a transitioning economy.

Finally, the outputs from the discussions could provide lessons learned for enhancing inclusivity in NDC and climate policy development and implementation. With the extended NDC deadline carded for September, initiatives as the “just transition citizen assemblies” in NDC processes, modeled after Scotland’s Climate Assembly, could prove useful.

From stalemate to action: what must happen at COP30?

The just transition work programme’s success hinges on resolving thorny debates, like who pays for transitions, and leveraging COP29’s New Collective Quantified Goal to fund justice-centered projects.

Governments must use the 2025 dialogues to move from gridlock to consensus. The just transition work programme won’t solve every climate justice challenge, but with focused efforts, it can turn COP29’s disappointment into real momentum, ensuring that the shift to a low-carbon future is both fast and fair.

As COP30 approaches, the stakes are high. Will negotiators seize the moment, or will just transition discussions remain in limbo?

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