Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment

 ©Bertknot, CC BY-SA 2.0
©Bertknot, CC BY-SA 2.0

Impacts and Vulnerability

Regional impacts and vulnerabilities are strongly dependent on the specific setting of physical exposure, the socio-economic development and livelihoods. Our work in this area focuses on assessing the full pathway from regional biophysical impacts to risks and damages, in order to identify adaptation priorities and to better understand the implications of different global goals of limiting climate change.

Latest

COP23 briefing - Following the string of high-intensity tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in 2017 and the devastating impacts on small island states, a number of questions have been raised about linkages between these cyclones and climate change. This briefing provides clarity on scientifically-supported connections between existing tropical cyclones and climate change.  
Will global warming make hurricanes worse? It's a disturbing sign of our times that such a simple question can trigger a political storm—especially because the answer will save lives and money. A possible link between global warming and hurricanes is important because its affects people, not because it proves an ideological point. Quoting Climate Analytics' Dr Carl-Friedrich Schleussner.  
Marrakech, 16 November - The Low Carbon Monitor, a new report launched by the United Nations Development Programme today, examines the benefits and opportunities of limiting warming to 1.5°C as enshrined in the goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change.  

Publications

This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. It is is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.  
Following the string of high intensity tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in 2017 and the devastating impacts on Small Island Developing States (SIDS), a number of questions have been raised about linkages between these cyclones and climate change. This briefing provides clarity on scientifically-supported connections between existing tropical cyclones and climate change. The briefing also summarises how climate change may affect tropical cyclones at increased global mean temperatures in the future and provides a summary of the observed socio-economic impacts of these extreme events on SIDS.  
This special feature of the journal Regional Environmental Change examines biophysical impacts under different warming scenarios (1, 1.5, 2, and 4 °C warming) and considers scientifically derived development impacts to gain a better understanding of vulnerability to climate change. The main contributions to this special feature are five regional impact papers summarising climate impacts in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, Central Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean and Middle East and Northern Africa.  
This United Nations Development Programme report, commissioned by the Climate Vulnerable Forum, focuses on the benefits and opportunities of limiting warming to 1.5°C, as enshrined in the Paris Agreement, in terms of economic growth, employment, avoided climate impacts, energy security, access and imports and health.  
Ethnic divides play a major role in many armed conflicts around the world and might serve as predetermined conflict lines following rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. We find evidence in global datasets that risk of armed-conflict outbreak is enhanced by climate-related disaster occurrence in ethnically fractionalized countries. Although we find no indications that environmental disasters directly trigger armed conflicts, our results imply that disasters might act as a threat multiplier in several of the world’s most conflict-prone regions.  

Projects

IMPACT is a cross-cutting, multi-faceted project that aims to strengthen the connections between the scientific assessments of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to help enable access to finance and help Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) implement concrete projects.  
This project provides francophone Least Developed Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with science-based support when formulating their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). In addition, it will give these countries access to international climate finance and establish national, international and regional platforms to share knowledge and experiences.    
The EmBARK-project will investigate time scales and possible trajectories of socio-economic transformation processes and analyse their relevance as potential barriers to adaptation to climate change. An improved understanding of the temporal dynamics of such barriers is key in developing a more realistic understanding of future climate impacts and for scientifically robust assessment of future climate related loss and damage.  
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.