Solar radiation modification (SRM), is presented by some as an option that may help to limit global temperature rise. However, SRM cannot address the root causes of anthropogenic climate change – the continued emissions of greenhouse gases. Investing precious time and resources in this critical decade to explore SRM technologies distracts from the urgent need to step up mitigation efforts to halve emissions by 2030.
Our areas of expertise include:
- Sea level rise
- Ocean acidification
- Climate sensitivity and feedbacks
- Probabilistic climate projections
- Emission pathways and climate goals
- Role of Non-CO2 gases and air pollutants
Contact
Dr. Michiel Schaeffer
Climate science is highly complex and the policy implications are not always clear. We therefore work to advance scientific knowledge on climate science, policy and impacts and make this information accessible to stakeholders working in the international climate change arena.
To do this, we conduct our own research (for example, projecting sea-level rise or evaluating impacts and risks at different levels of warming) and communicate key findings from the scientific literature, and their implications.
Projections of future climate change are subject to uncertainty, as they depend on a range of developments that cannot be foreseen. There remain important limitations to the understanding and modelling of some processes in the climate system. Much of our work is therefore focused on understanding these processes and the probabilities associated with climate impact projections.
Publications
Land cover and land management change has a critical role in mitigation scenarios for both global mitigation and local adaptation. Yet the dependence of different land cover and land management change options on the background climate, and the local vs. non-local responses are still poorly understood across different Earth system models.
This study builds on work by Samset et al., who reported that the effects of emission mitigation will only be perceived through global temperature with a multi-decadal delay. This paper provides additional context and expresses concerns with the approach towards assessing a discernible warming response under different greenhouse gas concentration pathways.
This study extends the framework of an existing spatially resolved, annual-scale Earth system model (ESM) emulator (MESMER) by a monthly downscaling module (MESMER-M), thus providing local monthly temperatures from local yearly temperatures. MESMER-M is able to statistically generate ESM-like, large initial-condition ensembles of spatially explicit monthly temperature fields, providing monthly temperature probability distributions which are of critical value to impact assessments.
This study ascribes the observations in increased Atlantic tropical cyclone activity to variations in atmospheric circulation as well as sea surface temperature (SST) increase. Using a novel weather-pattern-based statistical model, the authors find that the warming trend in the Atlantic has doubled the probability of extremely active tropical cyclone seasons.
We combine the benefit of CO2 sequestration of Afforestation/Reforestation (A/R) with the additional incentive or penalty of local BGP induced cooling or warming by translating the local BGP induced temperature change to a CO2 equivalent. We then include this new aspect in the land-use model MAgPIE via modifying the application of the price on greenhouse gases (GHG).
The annual ZERO IN reports by the CONSTRAIN project provide information on scientific topics that are fundamental to the Paris Agreement, as well as background and context on new developments at the science-policy interface.
This includes new insights into the complex processes represented in climate models and what they mean for temperature change and other climate impacts over the coming decades.
This third report provides additional context and background on the latest IPCC report on the physical science basis of climate change (IPCC AR6 WGI), and addresses important questions around how likely we are to reach 1.5°C of global temperature increase.
Projects
The Climate Action Tracker is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.
The EU-funded project addresses crucial knowledge gaps in climate science to improve our understanding of how natural and human factors affect long-term regional climate change.
IMPACT is a cross-cutting, multi-faceted project that aims to strengthen the connections between the scientific assessments of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to help enable access to finance and help Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) implement concrete projects.
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.
This project is an extension of the PAS-PNA project in Benin, Senegal and Burkina Faso. In each country, Climate Analytics, together with the national Green Climate Fund (GCF) Accredited Entity, is conducting the pre-feasibility or feasibility studies for selected adaptation projects, providing governments with an evidence-base to support the development of GCF concept notes and funding proposals.