Science Assessment
and Analysis

Climate science is highly complex and the policy implications are not always clear. We make the latest climate science easily accessible for stakeholders in the international climate change arena.

 ©Sarah Depper, CC BY 2.0
©Sarah Depper, CC BY 2.0

We synthesise and advance scientific knowledge in the area of climate change science, policy and impacts to make it easily accessible for stakeholders in the international climate change arena. This includes conducting our own research (for example, to evaluate the uncertainties in climate science associated with potential mitigation pathways, project sea-level rise or evaluate impacts and risks at different levels of warming) as well as bringing together and communicating the findings of the available scientific literature and providing the context needed to understand their implications. Projections of future climate change are subject to uncertainty, as they depend on a range of developments that cannot be foreseen (e.g. emission pathways). Also, there remain important limitations in the understanding and the modeling of some key processes of the climate system. Much of our work therefore focused on understanding these key process and the probabilities associated with climate impact projections.

Publications

The annual ZERO IN reports by the CONSTRAIN project provide information on scientific topics that are fundamental to the Paris Agreement, as well as background and context on new developments at the science-policy interface. This includes new insights into the complex processes represented in climate models and what they mean for temperature change and other climate impacts over the coming decades. This third report provides additional context and background on the latest IPCC report on the physical science basis of climate change (IPCC AR6 WGI), and addresses important questions around how likely we are to reach 1.5°C of global temperature increase.  
The impacts of climate change on the food system are a key concern for societies and policy makers globally. Assessments of the biophysical impacts of crop productivity show modest but uncertain impacts. But crop growth is not the only factor that matters for the food production. Climate impacts on the labour force through increased heat stress also need to be considered. Here, we provide projections for the integrated climate-induced impacts on crop yields and worker productivity on the agro-economy in a global multi-sector economic model.  
This briefings summarise the impacts of global warming at and above 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Key information is extracted from the Special Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of its sixth assessment report cycle (AR6). These Special Reports represent an invaluable resource to understand the impacts of exceeding 1.5°C and new science published after their compilation has only contributed to an ever clearer picture of the grave consequences of exceeding that limit. In addition to the overview on climate impacts based on the Special Reports, latest information on global mitigation efforts and requirements to meet the 1.5°C limit are also included.  
The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C sent a message of urgency. The IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate re-emphasises it and adds the dimensions of legacy of our actions. It shows how changes in ocean and cryosphere will continue for centuries and millennia even after emissions have seized.  
A number of the latest generation climate models (CMIP6) project greater future warming than previously assessed, but drawing conclusions about the implications for emission reduction targets is premature. This briefing looks at what could be behind these results and what this means for near-term emissions reductions and the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit.  
Ocean systems are particularly vulnerable to climate change and are already heavily impacted today. This briefing provides an overview of the latest science including from the latest IPCC special reports on key risks for ocean systems including from sea-level rise, ocean acidification and impacts on marine and coastal ecosystems. The analysis underscores the need to limit warming below 1.5°C to limit impacts on ocean systems. It is clearer than ever that exceeding that warming level will fundamentally affect ocean systems and undermine any other attempts to protect them. Limiting warming to 1.5°C remains of paramount importance to safeguard the oceans.  

Projects

IMPACT is a cross-cutting, multi-faceted project that aims to strengthen the connections between the scientific assessments of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to help enable access to finance and help Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) implement concrete projects.  
The EU-funded project “Constraining uncertainty of multi-decadal climate projections” (CONSTRAIN) will address crucial knowledge gaps in climate science to significantly improve our understanding of how natural and human factors affect multi-decadal regional climate change. The project will deliver improved climate projections of policy relevance for the next 20 to 50 years, contributing to European research on fundamental climate system processes and climate variability.  
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
This project is an extension of the PAS-PNA project in Benin, Senegal and Burkina Faso. In each country, Climate Analytics, together with the national Green Climate Fund (GCF) Accredited Entity, is conducting the pre-feasibility or feasibility studies for selected adaptation projects, providing governments with an evidence-base to support the development of GCF concept notes and funding proposals.  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.