Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Climate change calls for an international response, but also requires government and industry action to meet our global goals. We know that to prevent dangerous, irreversible climate change, the world needs to limit warming to 1.5°C.

To help governments, civil society and the private sector understand the pace of change required, we develop new methods to calculate the emission reductions needed to decarbonise in line with this planetary limit.

Our work focuses on:

tracking global and national climate action
assessing the adequacy of national targets and sectoral policies
setting benchmarks in areas such as fossil fuel phase-out and renewables scale up
assessing and modelling different mitigation options and their co-benefits
identifying national investment needs for the energy transition

Our experts

Jane Ellis

Head of Climate Policy Analysis

Dr Jan Sindt

Head of Implementation Strategies

Dr Lara Welder

Deputy Head of Climate Policy

Sofia Gonzales-Zuñiga

Senior Climate Policy Analyst

Publications

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

Setting 1.5°C compatible wind and solar targets

Technical guide for the development of long-term low emission development strategies in Africa

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

Submission to the consultation on PRRT cover

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase-out

No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions

Projects

1.5°C national pathways

The 1.5°C national pathway explorer, developed in collaboration with the IKEA Foundation, uses global and regional IPCC models to develop national and sectoral decarbonisation pathways.

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Climate Action Tracker

The Climate Action Tracker is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.

Analysing issues of fairness for carbon dioxide removal

The Carbon Dioxide Removal Options: Policies and Ethics (CDR-PoEt) project examines policy instruments and pathways towards fair deployment of carbon dioxide removal to meet the objectives of the Paris Agreement.

Assessment of mitigation pathways and cost estimates

The Assessment of climate change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of mitigation cost Estimates (AMPERE) project makes multi-model comparisons to better understand climate and cost uncertainties.

Next generation of advanced integrated assessment modelling to support climate policy making

The NAVIGATE project aims to enhance the capability of Integrated Assessment Models to account for distributional impacts of climate change and to describe transformative change in the economy. The research will help to gain insights on how long-term climate goals can be translated into short term climate policy measures, and how countries and sectors can work together to implement the Paris Agreement.

Land management strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change

The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, and the Sustainable Development Goals.

Coal phase-out

Coal is the most carbon intensive fossil fuel - phasing it out is key to achieving the 1.5°C Paris Agreement goal. Most emissions from coal are in the electricity sector, so coal’s phase-out is relatively cheap and easy, as the technologies that can replace it already exist. Our research shows coal needs to be phased out globally by 2040 for the world to meet its climate commitments.

4I-TRACTION: transformative climate policies for the EU

This project analyses what transformative climate policies could look like for the EU.

Closing gaps in the passenger policy framework

This project seeks to identify overlaps in the policy framework for passenger transport emissions in Hungary, Lithuania, Poland and Romania and close the existing gaps, providing examples of best practice from other countries.

Climate ambition support

Supporting climate-vulnerable countries in strengthening their roles and voices in international climate negotiations.

Climate mitigation potential for European forests and forest-based sectors

ForestNavigator (Navigating European forests and forest bioeconomy sustainably to EU climate neutrality) is a new ambitious pan-European research project, aiming at assessing the climate mitigation potential of European forests and forest-based sectors through modelling of policy pathways consistent with the best standards of land-use and forestry.

Assessing the differences in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C

The project ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) aims at assessing the difference in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C using targeted multi-ensemble simulations. The simulations are designed to allow for robust assessment of changing risks in extreme weather events.

Central and Eastern Europe climate policy frontiers

This project aims to facilitate knowledge exchange and the promotion of best practices for Paris Agreement-compatible climate action in the transport and building sectors in Central and Eastern Europe, focusing on Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.

Breaking down siloed decision making on climate for the EU 2020 Strategy

This research project is a collaboration between nine European institutions. It takes a fresh look at how the EU 2020 Strategy can achieve its goal of smart, sustainable and inclusive economic growth, particularly undertaking novel complexity approaches to the integration of policies involving the nexus between water, food, energy, land use and climate change.

Support for preparing Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

We assisted the Governments of a number of countries in their domestic preparation for the formulation of their intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs), in the context of the 2015 climate agreement.

Turn down the heat report series

From 2012 to 2014 we authored a series of reports for the World Bank looking at the impacts of climate change in a 4°C world with an emphasis on the impacts for the most vulnerable.

What did we just agree to? The COP29 outcome

This COP is already being reflected on as one of the most difficult in the history of the negotiations. And the final text has not made it all worth it. So, what was agreed? And what does it mean for addressing the climate crisis and the work to come next year on the road to COP30 in Belém?

New gas and oil has prevented CO2 global emissions from peaking

The Global Carbon Budget's first estimate for 2024's CO2 emissions suggests emissions rose by 0.8% this year. We delve into why we haven't peaked emissions yet.

By the numbers: the climate action we need this decade

We break down the transformational changes needed in the power, buildings, transport and agriculture sectors to slash greenhouse gas emissions over the next decade.

The IEA just published its 2024 World Energy Outlook: what does it say?

Our experts pull out the key messages from the International Energy Agency's 2024 global update on the energy sector and its implications for the climate.

Delay tactics at IPCC-61 could put science inputs to the UNFCCC at risk

The latest Plenary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just concluded in Sofia, Bulgaria. Despite days of deliberation, delegates were not able to agree on delivering the next round of reports in time for the second global stocktake, despite a request to do so from governments in the first global stocktake outcome agreed in Dubai last year.

The climate opportunity for the new UK government

As the dust settles on the UK elections, our climate and energy analyst Dr Neil Grant looks at the climate challenges ahead for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and his Energy Secretary Ed Miliband.

Sleight of hand: Australia’s Net Zero target is being lost in accounting tricks, offsets and more gas

Australia is unlikely to achieve its net zero target. This is because of its support for fossil gas to 2050 and beyond, it’s long-term emissions reduction plan resorts to unrealistic technological fixes and emissions offsets and because its legislated target of a 43% emissions cut by 2030 is not aligned with a 1.5°C pathway to net zero by 2050.

How Africa can be better represented in the next cycle of IPCC reports and why it matters

Despite its climate vulnerabilities, Africa was highly underrepresented in the last IPCC cycle. As governments start planning the IPCC’s seventh assessment cycle, more funding and support for African climate science – and scientists – could help address this and result in more equitable climate policies.

Why maintaining ambition for 1.5°C is critical

"One of the key things about this whole problem is that the only way to solve it is that we need to rapidly reduce and phase out fossil fuels. That can’t wait a decade. We need to be making substantial reductions this decade," Bill Hare said in address to the Australia Institute’s Climate Integrity Summit on 20 March 2024.

Will 2024 be the year emissions start falling?

The IPCC says we need to peak global greenhouse gas emissions before 2025 to limit warming to 1.5ºC. We dive into the latest research to see if this deadline can be met.

The IPCC set to respond to growing demand for climate science to inform policy

Last week in Istanbul, climate scientists and governments met in the sixtieth session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to agree a plan for its seventh, and potentially most consequential report cycle. The outcome means the IPCC will most probably take a more streamlined approach to its seventh cycle.

"The only GST that matters for 1.5°C": key takeaways from the first global stocktake at COP28

We breakdown the key takeaways from the first global stocktake (GST) since the Paris Agreement and how it sets the stage for the next two years in climate.

8 things to know about the state of climate action today

A major new report looks at climate action across all parts of the global economy to find that only electric vehicle sales are on track for 1.5°C.

Beetaloo gas field is a climate bomb. How did CSIRO modelling make it look otherwise?

The fossil gas industry is gearing up for a truly enormous new fracking project in the Northern Territory’s Beetaloo Basin that could undo all Australia's efforts to cut emissions.

A special report on system transitions would make IPCC science more actionable

The IPCC reporting cycle is out of step with the international climate policy process. A special report on system transitions could help make IPCC science more actionable.

Motorbike riding past G20 Summit in India

G20 renewables target is no substitute for a clear fossil fuel phase-out

The G20's new target of tripling renewables by 2030 is welcome, but the world will only meet its climate goals if this is coupled with a fossil fuel phase-out.

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