Climate Policy Analysis

We provide analysis and expert information on existing and required emissions reductions measures and policies to assist SIDS and LDCs in strengthening their negotiating positions and ambition in the negotiations.

Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0
Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0

We assess the effectiveness of international strategies and national climate policies, including low carbon development plans, in meeting global climate goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions whilst meeting sustainable development goals. We analyse the effectiveness of mitigation pledges made in the UNFCCC process, as well as national policies aimed at mitigation. Our findings are made publicly available, which is intended to increase transparency and to encourage countries to make pledges, if they have not yet done so, or to increase their level of national action.

Contact
Dr. (h.c.) Bill Hare

Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.
Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.

Our areas of expertise include:

  • Mitigation options and adequacy of action
  • Emission gap assessment
  • Co-benefits of mitigation
  • Equity options and analyses – download the Climate Analytics Equity Methodology briefing
  • INDCs

Publications

In Paris, all governments solemnly promised to come to COP26 with more ambitious 2030 commitments to close the massive 2030 emissions gap that was already evident in 2015. Three years later the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C reinforced the scientific imperative, and earlier this year it called a climate “code red.” Now, at the midpoint of Glasgow, it is clear there is a massive credibility, action and commitment gap that casts a long and dark shadow of doubt over the net zero goals put forward by more than 140 countries, covering 90% of global emissions.  
Here, we provide a first quantification of a few key takeaways for natural gas in a world that implements the Paris Agreement and limits warming to 1.5°C.  
This report, commissioned by the Independent Global Stocktake (iGST), seeks to understand: (a) how seven diverse countries use UNFCCC guidance at the national level to influence policy and politics, and (b) the implications of these findings for the framing and use of the outcomes from the GST in 2023 as an important input into the next round of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in 2025. The report also seeks to identify the conditions under which the GST could have more effect on in-country processes and makes proposals for how the GST could be made more relevant at that national level and how the iGST can play a role in this regard.  
In December 2020, the Federal Government projected Australia’s emissions would reach roughly 22% below 2005 levels by 2030 which falls short of its 26-28% Paris Agreement target. We anticipate the Federal Government will soon announce an increase in projected emissions reductions for 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. This report reveals virtually none of the likely reductions are a result of the Federal Government’s own policy.  
This article tests fairness justifications offered in 168 nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to the 2015 Paris Agreement against the touchstone of principles of international environmental law. It finds that while many NDCs refer to elements and indicators that are backed by principles of international law in determining fair shares (sustainable development, special circumstances, common but differentiated responsibilities and equity), some NDCs justify their contributions on the basis of indicators not backed by such principles.  

Projects

The Paris Agreement commits all countries to take ambitious steps to guarantee a low carbon future. This requires individual national governments to submit more ambitious emission reduction targets. In support of this urgent need to translate global trajectories to be in line with the Paris Agreement, this project, founded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries, across all regions and development spectrum can update their NDCs to be in line with the Paris climate goals.  
All governments which ratified the Paris Agreement are required to produce a new round of climate action plans, or Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), in 2020, as part of their commitment to achieve its objectives. Contributing to this process, Climate Analytics has conducted studies exploring the link between forest governance in the Congo Basin countries and the NDCs.  
This research project is a collaboration between nine European institutions. It takes a fresh look at how the EU 2020 Strategy can achieve its goal of smart, sustainable and inclusive economic growth, particularly undertaking novel complexity approaches to the integration of policies involving the nexus between water, food, energy, land use and climate change.  
This project seeks to address current gaps and overlaps in the policy framework for passenger transport emissions in Hungary, Lithuania, Poland and Romania. This project is part of the European Climate Initiative (EUKI) – a project financing instrument by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety (BMU).  
This project aims to facilitate knowledge exchange and the promotion of best practices for Paris Agreement-compatible climate action in the transport and building sectors in Central and Eastern Europe, focusing on Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Germany, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia.