Adaptation is a key societal response to reduce the impacts of climate change, yet it is poorly represented in current modelling frameworks. We identify key research gaps and suggest entry points for adaptation in quantitative assessments of climate change to enhance policy guidance.
Climate Risk Indicators
Projections of climate change are associated with uncertainties. Often, a mean estimate of model projections is used to identify likely pathways of climate change, with little focus the representation of low probability-high impact events. In this work area, we focus on providing indicators of high-end risks, which have the potential to severely disrupt important societal sectors and affect a large number of people.
Publications
This briefing summarises the latest science on 1.5°C including from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency and other key reports.
This report looks into the application of CLIMADA (CLIMate ADAptation), a natural catastrophe model that calculates climate risk and potential of adaptation in the Caribbean. The study marks a starting point to determine economic losses and damages as well as adaptation measures for the region which is commonly exposed to natural disasters.
Increasing evidence suggests that climate change impacts are already observed around the world. Global environmental assessments face challenges to appraise the growing literature. Here we use the language model BERT to identify and classify studies on observed climate impacts, producing a comprehensive machine-learning-assisted evidence map.
New paper finds that children are to face disproportionate increases in lifetime extreme event exposure – especially in low-income countries.
Although effects on labour is one of the most tangible and attributable climate impact, our quantification of these effects is insufficient and based on weak methodologies. Partly, this gap is due to the inability to resolve different impact channels, such as changes in time allocation (labour supply) and slowdown of work (labour productivity). Explicitly resolving those in a multi-model inter-comparison framework can help to improve estimates of the effects of climate change on labour effectiveness.
This briefings summarise the impacts of global warming at and above 1.5°C relative to pre-industrial levels. Key information is extracted from the Special Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of its sixth assessment report cycle (AR6). These Special Reports represent an invaluable resource to understand the impacts of exceeding 1.5°C and new science published after their compilation has only contributed to an ever clearer picture of the grave consequences of exceeding that limit. In addition to the overview on climate impacts based on the Special Reports, latest information on global mitigation efforts and requirements to meet the 1.5°C limit are also included.