Climate impacts and risks

We research how climate impacts – from storms and droughts to fires and water scarcity – affect peoples and ecosystems around the world, and what could happen at higher levels of warming.

Our impacts work is used as evidence in climate negotiations, in climate litigation cases and to inform policymakers of the risks associated with delayed action.

Our expertise includes:

climate projections and associated impacts
extreme events
slow-onset impacts
land use and land use change
socio-economic and health impacts
science communication

Our experts

Dr Melania Guerra

Head of Climate Science and Impacts Team

Dr Rosanne Martyr

Senior Scientist, Group Lead Adaptation and Loss and Damage

Dr Anne Zimmer

Group Lead: Socio-economic impacts and financial implications of climate change

Publications

Latest science on the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement

Climate overshoot implications for local adaptation planning

Reversal of the impact chain for actionable climate information

Humid heat exceeds human tolerance limits and causes mass mortality

Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways

Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach

Overconfidence in climate overshoot

Solar geoengineering: a note to inform discussions on physical climate impacts, risks and governance issues

How can event attribution science underpin financial decisions on Loss and Damage?

Achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions critical to limit climate tipping risks

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran

A review of loss and damage in the Caribbean (1994 to 2024)

Projects

Climate change risk analysis to support the Network for Greening the Financial System

The Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) is a voluntary group of banks and supervisors that aim to share best practices on climate risk management in the financial sector and to mobilise mainstream finance to promote the transition to a sustainable economy. Climate Analytics contributes to this work by providing estimates of risk from climate change impacts using future climate projections and makes them publicly available through the Climate Impact Explorer online tool.

Climate and Earth system responses to climate neutrality and net negative emissions

The RESCUE (Response of the Earth System to overshoot, Climate neutrality and negative Emissions) project aims to improve our knowledge and understanding of the climate and Earth system responses to climate neutrality and net negative emissions.

Climate ambition support

Supporting climate-vulnerable countries in strengthening their roles and voices in international climate negotiations.

Empowering island communities to reduce future flooding impacts (FloodAdapTT)

This project aims to empower island communities to assess what risks they face from flooding under different climate scenarios and help them determine which adaptation strategies will work best for their circumstances.

Understanding the climate impacts associated with temporarily overshooting 1.5°C

This project is working to develop the science around what the climate impacts of temporarily overshooting 1.5°C would mean for our climate.

Constraining uncertainty of multi-decadal climate projections

The EU-funded project “Constraining uncertainty of multi-decadal climate projections” (CONSTRAIN) will address crucial knowledge gaps in climate science to significantly improve our understanding of how natural and human factors affect multi-decadal regional climate change. The project will deliver improved climate projections of policy relevance for the next 20 to 50 years, contributing to European research on fundamental climate system processes and climate variability.

ISIpedia: the open climate-impacts encyclopedia

ISIpedia aims at facilitating the co-production and knowledge transfer of climate impact information. The end-product being a user-friendly, freely accessible online encyclopaedia for consistent impacts projections across sectors.

Risks of water and food insecurity in the Horn of Africa Drylands

The Horizon Europe funded project, Down2Earth, looks at future risks from water scarcity and food insecurity in vulnerable countries in the Horn of Africa Drylands and supports community-centered climate adaptation and resilience.

Climate risk, adaptation and insurance in the Caribbean

The Climate Risk Adaptation and Insurance in the Caribbean (CRAIC) project, led by Munich Climate Insurance Initiative, assists Caribbean countries in their efforts to increase social resilience and adapt to climate change by incorporating climate risk insurance within a broader framework of disaster risk reduction strategies.

Climate vulnerability monitor

The Climate Vulnerability Monitor, funded by the UN and spearheaded by the Climate Vulnerability Forum, aims to develop a global report and tool exploring climate change impacts, with a particular focus on the world’s most vulnerable countries. Climate Analytics leads the science consortium for this project.

Climate impacts on socioeconomic development

SLICE is investigating Short and Long-Term Impacts of Climate Extremes and aims to develop a systematic understanding of the channels through which climate extremes impact socio-economic development all the way from the household to the macroeconomic level. This will help developing effective strategies for long-term economic development under climate change.

IMPACT

IMPACT is a cross-cutting, multi-faceted project that aims to strengthen the connections between the scientific assessments of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to help enable access to finance and help Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) implement concrete projects.

Assessing climate change costs in Europe

The Horizon 2020 project COACCH (CO-designing the Assessment of Climate CHange costs) works with end users from research, business, investment, and policy making communities in Europe to jointly develop an innovative approach for downscaling the assessment of risks and costs of climate change in Europe.

Assessing the differences in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C

The project ‘Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts’ (HAPPI) aims at assessing the difference in climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C using targeted multi-ensemble simulations. The simulations are designed to allow for robust assessment of changing risks in extreme weather events.

Science-based national adaptation planning in Sub-Saharan Africa

This project provides francophone Least Developed Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with science-based support when formulating their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). In addition, it will give these countries access to international climate finance and establish national, international and regional platforms to share knowledge and experiences.

Projet d’Appui Scientifique aux processus de Plans Nationaux d’Adaptation

Ce projet soutient les Pays les Moins Avancés (PMA) de l’Afrique subsaharienne dans leurs processus de formulation de Plans Nationaux d’Adaptation (PNA). Il se déroule au Bénin, au Sénégal et au Burkina Faso, où les partenaires principaux sont les ministères nationaux chargés du changement climatique.

How do socioeconomic barriers inform limits to adaptation?

The EmBARK project investigates possible trajectories of socio-economic transformation processes and analyse their relevance as potential barriers to adaptation to climate change.

Breaking down siloed decision making on climate for the EU 2020 Strategy

This research project is a collaboration between nine European institutions. It takes a fresh look at how the EU 2020 Strategy can achieve its goal of smart, sustainable and inclusive economic growth, particularly undertaking novel complexity approaches to the integration of policies involving the nexus between water, food, energy, land use and climate change.

Turn down the heat report series

From 2012 to 2014 we authored a series of reports for the World Bank looking at the impacts of climate change in a 4°C world with an emphasis on the impacts for the most vulnerable.

High-Level support for LDCs and SIDS on climate change

The HLSM High-Level Support Mechanism for LDC and SIDS on Climate Change project creates a support mechanism for high-level political representatives and their advisors from LDCs and SIDS that is demand-driven, responsive to ongoing needs and firmly rooted in the respective regions.

SURVIVE

SURVIVE, a joint project between Climate Analytics and the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) supports Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) in the international climate change negotiations.

PREVENT

PREVENT is built around a team of experienced climate scientists and analysts, whose objective is to provide science, policy, strategic and analytical support for delegations of the Least Developed Countries and Small Island Developing States.

Pakistan is boiling

But the numbers aren't telling the actual story

Battle lines drawn at IPCC plenary as timeline decision successfully delayed for the third time

The role of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in providing science input into the Paris Agreement and its critical five yearly Global Stocktake is under challenge.

Reaching the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit: are we there yet?

Two new papers published in Nature Climate Change today ask whether the recent global temperatures at or exceeding 1.5° warming above preindustrial mean the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit has been reached or will soon be?

Why the Caribbean is bracing for what could be the worst hurricane season on record

Unprecedented sea surface temperatures in June have already fuelled a hurricane that has flattened communities in the Caribbean - the earliest of its kind. With forecasts warning of more to come, our experts get into the numbers of why this years' season could be the worst on record.

Delay tactics at IPCC-61 could put science inputs to the UNFCCC at risk

The latest Plenary of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has just concluded in Sofia, Bulgaria. Despite days of deliberation, delegates were not able to agree on delivering the next round of reports in time for the second global stocktake, despite a request to do so from governments in the first global stocktake outcome agreed in Dubai last year.

Hajj in the heat: from sacred journey to survival test

Extreme heat and humidity led to the tragic deaths of over 1,300 Hajj pilgrims this year. For the Hajj to remain physically possible during summer months, the Saudi government needs to adopt effective adaptation measures and play its part in the global move away from fossil fuels.

Developing countries need support adapting to deadly heat

Many vulnerable people in South Asia are already struggling to protect themselves from unbearably high temperatures – which are set to worsen.

How Africa can be better represented in the next cycle of IPCC reports and why it matters

Despite its climate vulnerabilities, Africa was highly underrepresented in the last IPCC cycle. As governments start planning the IPCC’s seventh assessment cycle, more funding and support for African climate science – and scientists – could help address this and result in more equitable climate policies.

Evidence from Berlin makes the case for urban green spaces: up to 3°C cooler in a heatwave

As global temperatures continue to rise, the safety and well-being of citizens within urban environments becomes increasingly important. Our recent work in the Berlin-Brandenburg area on adaptation to heat stress hammers home some truths – greener is better.

The IPCC set to respond to growing demand for climate science to inform policy

Last week in Istanbul, climate scientists and governments met in the sixtieth session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to agree a plan for its seventh, and potentially most consequential report cycle. The outcome means the IPCC will most probably take a more streamlined approach to its seventh cycle.

COP28 made strong progress on mountains – here’s what to expect in 2024

In 2024, mountains will feature strongly in a number of climate processes, such as the the expert dialogue on mountains at the climate talks in Bonn this June.

From droughts to floods: how Eastern African countries are responding to the rising El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole

The Horn of Africa looks set to go from one disaster to another as floods intensified by a rising El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole are predicted to follow a prolonged drought. We take a look at climate policies in the region and what countries are doing to prepare for compound extreme events.

A special report on system transitions would make IPCC science more actionable

The IPCC reporting cycle is out of step with the international climate policy process. A special report on system transitions could help make IPCC science more actionable.

Overshoot Commission’s veneer of neutrality is solar radiation modification PR by stealth

Calls for a moratorium on solar radiation modification (SRM) today by the Overshoot Commission seem sensible – such sun-blocking technologies are highly risky. Yet in the same breath, the Commission appears to encourage moratorium-busting SRM testing, begging the question – is their new report a trojan horse?

View of the Acropolis and Parthenon against the backdrop of smoke from fires in Athens, Greece

El Niño is contributing to the hottest temperatures ever recorded – what does this mean for the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit?

Extreme weather is raging across the northern hemisphere. Our experts explain the implications of the emerging El Niño for our changing climate.

Climate models underestimate food security risk from ‘compound’ extreme weather

Climate change poses a risk to global food security. Weather and climate extremes, such as prolonged drought, heavy rainfall and heatwaves, can lead to harvest failures. These are occurring with increased magnitude and frequency on a warming planet. In addition, such events can disrupt supply chains, decreasing food supply and leading to price spikes.

About us

Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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