Climate Impacts and Risk Assessment

 ©Bertknot, CC BY-SA 2.0
©Bertknot, CC BY-SA 2.0

Our work focuses on understanding the effects of climate change on livelihood realities and development perspectives of especially vulnerable population groups. Impact and vulnerability assessments provide an important basis for the identification of adaptation requirements as well as analyses of loss and damage. Through assessing the implications of impacts at different levels of warming, we gain a better understanding of the implications of different emission pathways. SIDS and LDCs face particularly great challenges. Their physical exposure and the limited number of available adaptation options as well as adaptive capacity are key determinants of their vulnerability.

Latest

Climate Analytics' researcher Claire Fyson sees scientists' warning of a Hothouse Earth as a "call to arms." Though the threshold temperature that leads to irreversible changes can't be pinpointed, science can tell us how to stay out of the very-high-risk zone, she says in this Deutsche Welle interview.  
The first ever Pacific Marine Climate Change Report Card has been launched today as part of World Oceans Day, at events in Fiji and Samoa. The user-friendly report card details current and projected climate change impacts on the Pacific island marine environment, what action is already being taken and what further responses are needed.  
COP23 briefing - Following the string of high-intensity tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin in 2017 and the devastating impacts on small island states, a number of questions have been raised about linkages between these cyclones and climate change. This briefing provides clarity on scientifically-supported connections between existing tropical cyclones and climate change.  
Will global warming make hurricanes worse? It's a disturbing sign of our times that such a simple question can trigger a political storm—especially because the answer will save lives and money. A possible link between global warming and hurricanes is important because its affects people, not because it proves an ideological point. Quoting Climate Analytics' Dr Carl-Friedrich Schleussner.  
Marrakech, 16 November - The Low Carbon Monitor, a new report launched by the United Nations Development Programme today, examines the benefits and opportunities of limiting warming to 1.5°C as enshrined in the goal of the Paris Agreement on climate change.  

Publications

This article contains the review of scientific evidence of regional differences in climate hazards at 1.5°C and 2°C and provides an assessment of selected hotspots of climate change, including small islands as well as rural, urban, and coastal areas in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, that are particularly affected by the additional 0.5°C global mean temperature increase.  
To support implementation of the Paris Agreement, the new HAPPI ensemble of 20 bias-corrected simulations of four climate models was used to drive two global hydrological models in worlds approximately 1.5 °C and 2 °C warmer than pre-industrial. Seven hydrological hazard indicators were analysed characterizing freshwater-related hazards for humans, freshwater biota and vegetation. The findings show that areas with either significantly wetter or drier conditions are smaller in the 1.5 °C world for all but one indicator. The incremental impact between 1.5 °C and 2 °C on high flows would be felt most by low income and lower middle income countries, the effect on soil moisture and low flows most by high income countries.  
Climate Analytics’ submission to the Talanoa Dialogue summarises the latest scientific findings relating to the 1.5°C limit. It outlines what climate impacts are being experienced around the globe at the current level of warming of around 1°C, such as extreme weather events, more intense tropical cyclones, impacts on oceans systems and health. It also discusses the benefits of the 1.5°C limit in terms of avoided impacts, especially on the most vulnerable communities, and what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.  
This article investigates projected changes in temperature and water cycle extremes at 1.5°C of global warming, and highlights the role of land processes and land-use changes (LUCs) for these projections. It is is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.  

Projects

IMPACT is a cross-cutting, multi-faceted project that aims to strengthen the connections between the scientific assessments of climate impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to help enable access to finance and help Small Island Developing States (SIDS) and Least Developed Countries (LDCs) implement concrete projects.  
This project provides francophone Least Developed Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa with science-based support when formulating their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs). In addition, it will give these countries access to international climate finance and establish national, international and regional platforms to share knowledge and experiences.    
The EmBARK-project will investigate time scales and possible trajectories of socio-economic transformation processes and analyse their relevance as potential barriers to adaptation to climate change. An improved understanding of the temporal dynamics of such barriers is key in developing a more realistic understanding of future climate impacts and for scientifically robust assessment of future climate related loss and damage.  
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.