Mitigation Scenarios and Pathways

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.

Latest

Carbon pollution from fracking all Western Australia’s potential unconventional gas reserves would blow Australia’s entire carbon budget under the Paris Agreement three times over, new research shows. German-based researcher Climate Analytics last week released Western Australia's Gas Gamble - Implications of natural gas extraction in WA.  
A new Climate Analytics report released today shows that Western Australia’s gas resource emissions are four times higher than national energy carbon pollution budget under Paris Agreement. It also shows that rather than risk stranded assets by investing in gas, it would be much smarter for WA to take advantage of its vast renewable energy resources.  
COP23 briefing - There has been much talk of "Blue Carbon" in the Bonn climate negotiations. But what does it really mean? This briefing sets out the issues and finds that the use of blue carbon to offset and hence effectively avoid required emission reductions in other sectors would undermine our ability to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.  
One of the world’s leading climate experts says Australia needs to aim for 100 per cent renewables within two decades as part of its efforts to meet climate targets, and it stands to reap enormous economic – and environmental – benefits if it does. Coverage of Climate Analytics' CEO Dr Bill Hare's talk at Keith Roby Memorial Lecture at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia.  
Less than two weeks ago, Alan Finkel told the Australian Senate his landmark report would help Australia meet the commitments it made in Paris to reduce its economy-wide emissions by 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. But his recommendations on the future of the National Electricity Market, released today, appear to fly in the face of those very commitments. With comments from Climate Analytics' Bill Hare.  
A pact by almost 200 nations to slash greenhouse gases used in refrigerators and air conditioners will likely fall short of governments' hopes of averting a full half-degree Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit) of warming this century, scientists say. Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics estimates "around 0.2 degree Celsius (0.36F) by 2100" of avoided warming.  

Publications

This technical note looks at the estimates of the remaining warming that have been used in the IPCC AR5 and in recent studies, and evaluates the consequences for carbon budget estimates to limit warming to 1.5°C.  
Climate Analytics’ submission to the Talanoa Dialogue summarises the latest scientific findings relating to the 1.5°C limit. It outlines what climate impacts are being experienced around the globe at the current level of warming of around 1°C, such as extreme weather events, more intense tropical cyclones, impacts on oceans systems and health. It also discusses the benefits of the 1.5°C limit in terms of avoided impacts, especially on the most vulnerable communities, and what is needed to limit warming to 1.5°C.  
Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. This study shows the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compares them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming.  
There have been proposals for the UNFCCC to adopt a dual-term greenhouse gas accounting standard: 20-year GWPs alongside the presently accepted 100-year GWPs. It is argued that the advantage of such a change would be to more rapidly reduce short term warming and buy time for CO2 reductions. This briefing shows why these changes would be counterproductive and the benefits overstated.  

Projects

The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.  
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012  
Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates Project Period: 2011 - 2014  
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