Carbon pollution from fracking all Western Australia’s potential unconventional gas reserves would blow Australia’s entire carbon budget under the Paris Agreement three times over, new research shows. German-based researcher Climate Analytics last week released Western Australia's Gas Gamble - Implications of natural gas extraction in WA.
Our areas of expertise include:
- Emission reduction targets
- Carbon and emission budgets
- Mitigation costs
- Role of air pollutants
- Co-benefits
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We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.
Latest
A new Climate Analytics report released today shows that Western Australia’s gas resource emissions are four times higher than national energy carbon pollution budget under Paris Agreement. It also shows that rather than risk stranded assets by investing in gas, it would be much smarter for WA to take advantage of its vast renewable energy resources.
COP23 briefing - There has been much talk of "Blue Carbon" in the Bonn climate negotiations. But what does it really mean? This briefing sets out the issues and finds that the use of blue carbon to offset and hence effectively avoid required emission reductions in other sectors would undermine our ability to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.
One of the world’s leading climate experts says Australia needs to aim for 100 per cent renewables within two decades as part of its efforts to meet climate targets, and it stands to reap enormous economic – and environmental – benefits if it does. Coverage of Climate Analytics' CEO Dr Bill Hare's talk at Keith Roby Memorial Lecture at Murdoch University in Perth, Australia.
A history of failure has left Australia with virtually no genuinely independent advice on climate change. With comments from Climate Analytics' CEO Bill Hare on the recommendations of the Finkel Review.
Less than two weeks ago, Alan Finkel told the Australian Senate his landmark report would help Australia meet the commitments it made in Paris to reduce its economy-wide emissions by 28% below 2005 levels by 2030. But his recommendations on the future of the National Electricity Market, released today, appear to fly in the face of those very commitments.
With comments from Climate Analytics' Bill Hare.
A pact by almost 200 nations to slash greenhouse gases used in refrigerators and air conditioners will likely fall short of governments' hopes of averting a full half-degree Celsius (0.9 Fahrenheit) of warming this century, scientists say. Michiel Schaeffer of Climate Analytics estimates "around 0.2 degree Celsius (0.36F) by 2100" of avoided warming.
Publications
Implications of exploiting Canning Basin and other unconventional gas resources for achieving climate targets
Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. This study shows the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compares them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming.
There have been proposals for the UNFCCC to adopt a dual-term greenhouse gas accounting standard: 20-year GWPs alongside the presently accepted 100-year GWPs. It is argued that the advantage of such a change would be to more rapidly reduce short term warming and buy time for CO2 reductions. This briefing shows why these changes would be counterproductive and the benefits overstated.
The use of blue carbon to offset and hence effectively avoid required emission reductions in other sectors such as fossil fuel combustion, industry, agriculture, international aviation and marine activities would undermine our ability to limit temperature rise to 1.5°C.
The Finkel Review was an opportunity to propose a science-based approach to the short and long-term development of Australia's electricity sector consistent with the low-carbon transformation required to meet the goals and obligations of the Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, should the government accept the minimum electricity sector pathway suggested by the Finkel Review, Australia would very likely not be able to meet its obligations under the Paris Agreement, which calls for countries to adopt measures to hold global warming well below 2°C and limit this to 1.5°C.
This report looks into the implications of the Paris Agreement for coal fired electric generation. It shows that the Paris Agreement 1.5°C temperature limit requires a quick phase-out of coal used for electric power generation.
This briefing outlines why it is misleading to conflate negative emissions technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere with proposed geoengineering techniques, such as Solar Radiation Management (SRM).
Projects
The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.
The project looks into the consequences of the Paris Agreement for planned and existing coal capacity, comparing existing and planned coal capacity for a set of key countries/regions.
COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs).
Project Period: 2011 - 2012
Climate Analytics provides analytical support to NGOs.
Project Period: 2009
Assessment of Climate Change Mitigation Pathways and Evaluation of the Robustness of Mitigation Cost Estimates
Project Period: 2011 - 2014