For a second year in a row, the world continues to break temperature records as greenhouse gas emissions rise, leading to more extreme heat and flooding events that are taking lives and displacing many around the globe. Governments are expected to submit their climate targets - or new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - by early 2025, with targets for 2035.

However, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyses have continued to show that both individual country and collective mitigation ambition for 2030 targets is not in line with the level of action needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. Of even more concern: governments are not implementing enough policies and actions to meet even those insufficient targets.

From November this year, national governments need to submit 1.5°C aligned 2035 NDC targets but for the world to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C temperature goal, they need to move to emergency mode and strengthen the ambition of their 2030 NDC targets and current policy action. Targets and action for 2030 needs to align with the pathway to net CO2 zero emissions by 2050 globally, which should also then define the NDC targets for 2035.

A failure to substantially increasing the ambition of current 2030 targets and action would mean limiting peak global warming to 1.5°C will not be possible and would likely lead to a multidecadal, high overshoot of this limit, even if followed by strong 2035 targets.

In this briefing, the CAT highlights four key elements for what is needed from the next round of NDCs for 2035: they need to be ambitious, fair, credible, transparent, and include aspects of climate finance and a just and fair transition.

Four key elements for good climate targets

Publications

1.5°C-aligned 2030 and 2035 GHG emissions targets

We have produced factsheets for Australia, China, the EU, India, Indonesia and USA showing 2030 and 2035 greenhouse gas emission reduction milestones for each jurisdiction to align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal – both including and excluding land use, land-use change and forestry.

Spatially resolved emulated annual temperature projections for overshoot pathways

This study presents a new dataset of annual temperature projections for different overshoot pathways (when the 1.5 °C of global warming limit is exceeded). The data offers a unique opportunity to study local and regional climate change impacts of a range of overshoot scenarios, including when temperature thresholds might be exceeded, and by how much.

Geological Net Zero and the need for disaggregated accounting for carbon sinks

This study in Nature show that definitions of net zero now in widespread use will not actually stop global warming. The paper demonstrates that relying on natural carbon sinks, such as in forests or oceans, to 'offset' ongoing fossil fuel emissions will lead to continued warming.

Climate Action Tracker: 2024 warming projection update

Despite an escalating climate crisis marked by unprecedented wildfires, storms, floods, and droughts, the Climate Action Tracker annual global temperature update shows global warming projections for 2100 are flatlining, with no improvement since 2021. The aggregate effect of current policies set the world on a path toward 2.7°C of warming.

Decarbonising light-duty vehicle road transport

The Climate Action Tracker provides updated 1.5ºC compatible benchmarks for the transport sector for the world as a whole and for seven individual countries; the US, EU, China, India, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia.

Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air … please!

The 2024 edition of UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report shows how much higher nations must aim. To get on a least-cost pathway for 1.5°C, emissions must fall 42 per cent by 2030, compared to 2019 levels. G20 nations, particularly the largest-emitting members, would need to do the heavy lifting.

The role of northern forests in limiting warming to 1.5°C

Northern forests are critical in the race to net zero CO₂ by mid-century. Protecting and restoring these forests, alongside steep and rapid reductions in fossil fuel emissions, is essential both to mitigating emissions and to supporting forest ecosystem services and biodiversity.

Methodology underpinning the State of Climate Action series: 2024 update

This technical note describes the State of Climate Action series’ methodology for identifying sectors that must transform, translating these transformations into global mitigation targets primarily for 2030, 2035 and 2050 and selecting indicators with datasets to monitor annual change. It also outlines the report’s approach for assessing progress made toward near-term targets and comparing trends over time.

Rapid urbanisation and climate change key drivers of dramatic flood impacts in Nepal

New study finds the devastating floods in Nepal late September were exacerbated by rapid urbanisation and climate change. The analysis found the relentless rain, which fell on saturated ground in the late monsoon, was made at least 10% heavier and 70% more likely by climate change.

LNG shipbuilding industry heading to huge oversupply

The LNG shipbuilding industry appears to be doubling down on building new carriers, ignoring the global shift to a low carbon economy and putting itself into an even worse oversupply situation than a year ago, we find in our updated report.

Seasonal forecast of two-metre temperature and precipitation in Tanzania: A hybrid cluster and point-by-point machine learning approach

Seasonal forecasting of atmospheric parameters is important in various fields including agriculture. This study tests how machine learning can complement dynamic models using Tanzanian seasonal forecasts and finds this process uses far less computational power.

Adapting East and Southern Africa’s livestock to climate change

This paper presents a decision-making framework to help livestock farmers in Eastern and Southern Africa select context-specific adaptation strategies in response to climate change. The framework uses a decision tree to evaluate options based on different climate scenarios and systems, offering tailored guidance for various livestock types and regions.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Guide to a good 2035 climate target