For a second year in a row, the world continues to break temperature records as greenhouse gas emissions rise, leading to more extreme heat and flooding events that are taking lives and displacing many around the globe. Governments are expected to submit their climate targets - or new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) - by early 2025, with targets for 2035.

However, the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyses have continued to show that both individual country and collective mitigation ambition for 2030 targets is not in line with the level of action needed to limit warming to 1.5°C. Of even more concern: governments are not implementing enough policies and actions to meet even those insufficient targets.

From November this year, national governments need to submit 1.5°C aligned 2035 NDC targets but for the world to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5˚C temperature goal, they need to move to emergency mode and strengthen the ambition of their 2030 NDC targets and current policy action. Targets and action for 2030 needs to align with the pathway to net CO2 zero emissions by 2050 globally, which should also then define the NDC targets for 2035.

A failure to substantially increasing the ambition of current 2030 targets and action would mean limiting peak global warming to 1.5°C will not be possible and would likely lead to a multidecadal, high overshoot of this limit, even if followed by strong 2035 targets.

In this briefing, the CAT highlights four key elements for what is needed from the next round of NDCs for 2035: they need to be ambitious, fair, credible, transparent, and include aspects of climate finance and a just and fair transition.

Four key elements for good climate targets

Publications

Evaluating the near and long-term role of carbon dioxide removal in meeting global climate objectives

For 1.5°C pathways with limited overshoot, most of the mitigation between now and 2030 should come from emissions reductions (70%), with reductions from cutting non-CO2 emissions (20%) and land-based carbon dioxide removals such as afforestation and preventing deforestation (10%) making up the remainder.

Using existing databases to report on loss and damage in Biennial Transparency Reports under the UNFCCC

Calculating financing needs to respond to loss and damage requires response activities to be costed. However, comprehensive assessments of current and future loss and damage costs are largely unavailable. This briefing proposes using existing databases as proxies in the interim.

Article 6.4 progress update: work of the Supervisory Body on the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism

The Article 6.4 mechanism, now known as the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism, allows countries to trade reductions in carbon emissions in a manner that goes beyond zero-sum offsetting, to achieve their commitments under the Paris Agreement. This briefing aims to update Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries on the standards and procedures that have been adopted by the supervising body (Article 6.4) to inform the design of projects.

Increasing April-May rainfall, El Niño and high vulnerability behind deadly flooding in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran

This April and May, large regions of central Asia were hit by a series of storms resulting in heavy downpours and flash flooding. Researchers assessed what extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the weather conditions that caused the floods.

A review of loss and damage in the Caribbean (1994 to 2024)

Loss and damage from climate change has been the lived reality of Caribbean small island developing states (SIDS) for decades. Despite efforts to adapt, it is reversing development gains, leaving lasting financial stress, and causing irreparable damage, including the loss of cultural heritage. This report is the first to provide a systematic overview of how Caribbean countries are framing and reporting on loss and damage.

What does a just transition look like for Caribbean Small Island Developing States?

This briefing aims to provide some preliminary information on what just transition encompasses in the context of Caribbean Small Island Developing States.

Earth Virtualisation Engines (EVE)

The authors propose creating an international federation of research institutions that improve the quality and accessibility of Earth systems data. The purpose is to empower all people to respond to the immense and urgent challenges posed by climate change.

Dubai 17/4/24. Areas of flooding in turquoise. Source: Copernicus Sentinel-2 (CC BY-SA 3.0 IGO)

Heavy precipitation hitting vulnerable communities in the UAE and Oman becoming an increasing threat as the climate warms

Researchers have assessed the extent human-induced climate change altered the likelihood and intensity of the weather conditions that caused the flooding in the United Arab Emirates and the northern parts of Oman in April 14–15 2024. The region was hit by exceptionally heavy rainfall causing massive disruption in infrastructure and public life in the area and leading to at least 20 fatalities in Oman and four in the UAE.

The impacts of multiple tropical cyclone events and associated precipitation on household income and expenditures

Climate change-fueled tropical cyclones have already reduced household incomes across the Philippines by 7% on average, according to a new study. This figure rises to more than 20% in some provinces.

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Mapping the climate risk to urban forests at city scale

This study uses an urban tree inventory and high-resolution climate projections to identify species and locations at risk from climate change in Melbourne. It finds that half of the tree species in Melbourne are at risk from heat stress, which could climb to two thirds in 2050.

The 1.5°C limit and risks of overshoot

This briefing looks at what the 1.5°C limit means in terms of adaptation and loss and damage for the most vulnerable countries and regions. It finds that slowing down warming is critical to buy us time to adapt and also to avoid irreversible loss and damage. Even if warming rises above 1.5°C (overshoot) we can bring it down again with ambitious emissions reductions.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Guide to a good 2035 climate target