Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has assessed 15 of the 29 INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC so far, accounting for almost 65% of global emissions, and has identified a large emission gap. The climate targets collectively lead to global emissions far beyond levels required to hold warming to below 2°C. CAT has also found that current climate policies are insufficient to limit emissions even to be in line with the already inadequate INDCs.
Ahead of the upcoming G7 meeting in Germany, the Climate Action Tracker analyses the combined INDCs of all G7 governments and the EU and finds that the combined climate plans for the G7 and EU have made a small step towards the right track to hold warming to 2°C, but there is still a substantial emissions gap.
Climate Action Tracker’s analysis looking at the combined INDCs of all G7 governments and the EU, who are responsible, in aggregate, for around 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 40% of global GDP, ahead of the 2015 G7 meeting in Germany. The combined climate plans for the G7 and EU have made a small step towards the right track to hold warming to 2°C, but there is still a substantial emissions gap.
The emissions gap in 2020 is the difference between emission levels in 2020 consistent with meeting climate targets, and levels expected in that year if country pledges and commitments are met. As it becomes less and less likely that the emissions gap will be closed by 2020, the world will have to rely on more difficult, costlier and riskier means after 2020 of keeping global average temperature increase below 2°C. If the emissions gap is not closed, or significantly narrowed, by 2020, the door to many options limiting the temperature increase to 1.5°C at the end of this century will be closed.
This report shows that the estimated emissions gap in 2020 for a “likely” chance of staying below the 2°C target is large, but it is still technically possible to close this gap through concerted and rapid action.
There have been an increasing number of statements from some in the scientific community and other commentators that meeting the 2°C warming goal is now beyond reach.
Project analysing the advantages and disadvantages of different forms of commitments and assessing which level of ambition can be expected from selected 15 industrialised, emerging and developing countries. Project Period: 2013 - 2016