Climate Policy Analysis

We provide analysis and expert information on existing and required emissions reductions measures and policies to assist SIDS and LDCs in strengthening their negotiating positions and ambition in the negotiations.

Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0
Coal Mine Garzweiler ©Bert Kaufmann, CC BY-SA 2.0

We assess the effectiveness of international strategies and national climate policies, including low carbon development plans, in meeting global climate goals and reducing greenhouse gas emissions whilst meeting sustainable development goals. We analyse the effectiveness of mitigation pledges made in the UNFCCC process, as well as national policies aimed at mitigation. Our findings are made publicly available, which is intended to increase transparency and to encourage countries to make pledges, if they have not yet done so, or to increase their level of national action.

Contact
Dr. (h.c.) Bill Hare

Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.
Members of the Climate Policy team Fabio Sferra and Marcia Rocha at COP20, Lima.

Our areas of expertise include:

  • Mitigation options and adequacy of action
  • Emission gap assessment
  • Co-benefits of mitigation
  • Equity options and analyses
  • INDCs

Latest

Finland and the European Union need to strengthen their climate pledges, rapidly cut emissions and speed up introducing renewables into the energy mix to be in line with the 1.5°C warming limit in the Paris Agreement, according to a new report.  
Opinion piece about the US Supreme Court decision against President Obama's Clean Power Plan, quoting Climate Analytics Head of Policy Dr. Marcia Rocha who finds that without this policy, it would become virtually impossible for the U.S. to achieve reductions consistent with holding warming well below 2 degrees Celsius.  
Bill Hare: "The weak carbon intensity target as stated in China's climate pledges appears inadequate, GHG Emissions have to peak before 2025 in China to limit global warming well below two degrees, five years earlier than proposed by Beijing."  
Our side event at COP21 on 4 Dec 2015 focuses on data and values, science, politics and mechanisms relating to the ambition and impact of INDCs and the new climate agreement. The event is a collaboration with PBL and TERI.  
There are many effort-sharing approaches used to determine what constitutes a fair and equitable emission reduction for a given country. This leads to very different outcomes and a large range of emissions allowances for a country. This new report by Climate Analytics provides insight into the key differences between a wide range of effort sharing models and the most important assumptions that influence countries’ emissions allowances under different equity regimes.  
Climate Action Tracker (CAT) has assessed 15 of the 29 INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC so far, accounting for almost 65% of global emissions, and has identified a large emission gap. The climate targets collectively lead to global emissions far beyond levels required to hold warming to below 2°C. CAT has also found that current climate policies are insufficient to limit emissions even to be in line with the already inadequate INDCs.  

Publications

This paper analyses “fair and adequate” emission reduction ranges for 2025, 2030 and 2050 for Brazil, India and South Africa, largest economies and a set of African countries (part of MAPS - Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios Programme). This analysis provides insight into the key differences between a wide range of effort sharing models, criteria, their proxy metrics and the most important assumptions that influence countries’ emissions allowances under different equity regimes. This analysis provides insight into the key differences between a wide range of effort sharing models, criteria, their proxy metrics and the most important assumptions that influence countries’ emissions allowances under different equity regimes.  
The issue of a fair distribution of the burden in the fight against climate change has been the major point of contention since the beginning of the climate negotiations in the 1990s. Although a number of different approaches of effort distribution emerged in the meantime, many of them reflected the interests of the stakeholders developing them. As a result different weight has been given to different aspects, such as historic responsibility, current emission levels or the capability to reduce these emissions. This report presents different approaches to the distribution of the mitigation efforts and compares their results to the contributions that some governments submitted to the UNFCCC ahead of the climate conference in Paris.  
On 11 August 2015, Australia submitted its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). The Climate Action Tracker rates Australia’s INDC 2030 target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 26–28% from 2005 levels including land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) by 2030 as “inadequate.” After accounting for LULUCF, this target is equivalent to a range of around 5% below to 5% above 1990 levels of GHG emissions excluding LULUCF in the year 2030.  
Climate Action Tracker’s analysis looking at the combined INDCs of all G7 governments and the EU, who are responsible, in aggregate, for around 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions and 40% of global GDP, ahead of the 2015 G7 meeting in Germany. The combined climate plans for the G7 and EU have made a small step towards the right track to hold warming to 2°C, but there is still a substantial emissions gap.  

Projects

The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
The project will define a concrete date for zero emissions from coal in the European electricity mix and a shut down schedule for each existing or planned coal power plant in the European Union, in order to meet temperature limit set out in the Paris Agreement.  
This research project is a collaboration between nine European institutions. It takes a fresh look at how the EU 2020 Strategy can achieve its goal of smart, sustainable and inclusive economic growth, particularly undertaking novel complexity approaches to the integration of policies involving the nexus between water, food, energy, land use and climate change.  
This project looks at the implications of the Paris Agreement, especially of the 2°C temperature limit and the 1.5°C aspirational goal, for greenhouse gas emission mitigation in Finland. Project period April - May 2016.