Wind and solar technologies have emerged as key players in the transition to clean electricity, boasting significant growth attributed to technological advancements, improved economics, and favourable policy developments. This growth not only signals a shift toward sustainable energy sources but also presents opportunities for economic growth, job creation, and enhanced energy security.

Despite being major drivers of the imminent peak emissions in global electricity supply, the deployment of wind and solar capacity falls short of the required magnitude and pace. To achieve the ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement, there is a pressing need for comprehensive research on breaking down globally required levels of wind and solar installations to a national scale to ensure robust domestic strategies to safeguard the 1.5°C limit.

In this report we present, together with the NewClimate Institute, a stepwise methodology designed to define credible, replicable, and transparent benchmarks for wind and solar capacity, aligning with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. Our approach combines diverse building blocks in a step-by-step method to translate global decarbonisation needs of the power sector into national wind and solar benchmarks for 2030, 2040, and 2050. By integrating various lines of evidence, including both national and global perspectives, the proposed methodology aims to align the benchmarks with global temperature goals while considering national circumstances.

The primary focus of the report lies in presenting the methodology, while offering illustrative benchmarks for select countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa). Having laid the groundwork with the methodology presented in this report, the next step will be to extend our analysis and roll out national benchmarks for major emitters and priority regions (at least 10 next year).

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

Publications

What good looks like: G7 climate policy 2024 update

This brief outlines seven key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C limit in sight.

Tripling renewables by 2030: interpreting the global goal at the regional level

At COP28, governments agreed to triple global renewable capacity by 2030. This report breaks down what a 1.5ºC-aligned renewables rollout would look like at the regional level and calculate the associated investment needs.

Submission to the Australian Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax

As the gas industry in Australia has grown exponentially, the profit taxes it pays to the government have proportionally plummeted, presenting an opportunity to change this regime. Here, we respond to the Australian Government Treasury consultation on the Petroleum Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) – anti-avoidance provisions and clarifying treatment of ‘exploration’ and Mining, Quarrying or Prospecting Rights.

COP28 initiatives will only reduce emissions if followed through

Few of the sectoral initiatives announced during COP28 will meaningfully contribute to closing the emissions gap. Many of them lack either the ambition, clarity, coverage or accountability needed to really make a difference.

Unabated: the Carbon Capture and Storage 86 billion tonne carbon bomb aimed at derailing a fossil phase-out

The climate talks at COP28 have centred around the need for a fossil fuel phase-out. Our analysis quantifies the risk posed by restricting a phase-out commitment to only ‘unabated’ fossil fuels.

No change to warming as fossil fuel endgame brings focus onto false solutions

The CAT's annual warming estimate has risen by 0.1˚C to 2.5˚C. The estimate is largely influenced by weak existing targets rather than shifts triggered by updated Nationally Determined Contributions.

Submission on Australia's future gas strategy

The Australian government asked for answers to its questions around the future of its gas strategy. This was our submission.

When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?

The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.

A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector

The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.

State of Climate Action 2023

This report finds that global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C are failing across the board, with recent progress made on every indicator – except electric vehicle sales – lagging behind the pace and scale needed to address the climate crisis.

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Production Gap Report 2023

Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.

Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates

This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.

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Decarbonisation targets and 1.5℃ pathways

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Wind and solar benchmarks for a 1.5°C world