Wind and solar technologies have emerged as key players in the transition to clean electricity, boasting significant growth attributed to technological advancements, improved economics, and favourable policy developments. This growth not only signals a shift toward sustainable energy sources but also presents opportunities for economic growth, job creation, and enhanced energy security.
Despite being major drivers of the imminent peak emissions in global electricity supply, the deployment of wind and solar capacity falls short of the required magnitude and pace. To achieve the ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement, there is a pressing need for comprehensive research on breaking down globally required levels of wind and solar installations to a national scale to ensure robust domestic strategies to safeguard the 1.5°C limit.
In this report we present, together with the NewClimate Institute, a stepwise methodology designed to define credible, replicable, and transparent benchmarks for wind and solar capacity, aligning with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. Our approach combines diverse building blocks in a step-by-step method to translate global decarbonisation needs of the power sector into national wind and solar benchmarks for 2030, 2040, and 2050. By integrating various lines of evidence, including both national and global perspectives, the proposed methodology aims to align the benchmarks with global temperature goals while considering national circumstances.
The primary focus of the report lies in presenting the methodology, while offering illustrative benchmarks for select countries (Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Germany, South Africa). Having laid the groundwork with the methodology presented in this report, the next step will be to extend our analysis and roll out national benchmarks for major emitters and priority regions (at least 10 next year).
When will global greenhouse gas emissions peak?
The IPCC says peaking before 2025 is a critical step to keep the 1.5°C limit within reach. With emissions set to rise in 2023, this leaves limited time to act. To assess if we can meet this milestone, we look at when global emissions might peak, as well as what we can do to get there in time.
A 1.5°C future is possible: getting fossil fuels out of the Philippine power sector
The Philippines is also one of the fastest-growing developing countries: poverty is in decline, access to energy is rising and, with that, demand for energy services. However, fossil fuels still dominate the energy system, accounting for 78% of power generation in 2022. This report sets out what the Philippines government needs to do to get the country’s power sector onto a 1.5˚C compatible emissions pathway, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy.
Production Gap Report 2023
Governments, in aggregate, still plan to produce more than double the amount of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C. The persistence of the global production gap puts a well-managed and equitable energy transition at risk.
Emissions impossible: Unpacking CSIRO GISERA Beetaloo Middle Arm fossil gas emissions estimates
This report provides an independent evaluation of the CSIRO and GISERA assessments of the potential greenhouse gas emissions that would result from the exploitation of the Beetaloo fossil shale gas reserves.
Adjusting 1.5°C climate change mitigation pathways in light of adverse new information
This study uses an integrated assessment model to explore how 1.5°C pathways could adjust in light of new adverse information, such as a reduced 1.5°C carbon budget, or slower-than-expected low-carbon technology deployment.
Railway development: lessons for the EU
This paper analyses how EU railway policy for a low-carbon future can be enhanced, drawing insights from Japan and Switzerland.
Ramping up energy storage: lessons for the EU
This paper explores how the EU can enhance its policy for a low-carbon future by learning from successful energy storage approaches in California, South Korea, and Australia.
The biogeophysical effects of idealised land cover and land management changes in Earth system models
The dependence of different land cover and land management change options on the background climate are still poorly understood across different Earth system models.
De la CDN 1.0 à la CDN 2.0: qu'est-ce qui a changé dans les CDN des PMA de l’Afrique de l'Ouest?
La présente étude examine les premières et les secondes Contributions Déterminées au niveau National des onze pays les moins avancés de l’Afrique de l’Ouest à savoir le Bénin, le Burkina Faso, la Gambie, la Guinée, la Guinée Bissau, le Libéria, le Mali, le Niger, le Sénégal, la Sierra Leone et le Togo.