Climate Negotiations

SIDS and LDCs are the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts. We provide negotiation support tailored to their specific circumstances and concerns.

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

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Henrike Doebert

Feature: 1.5°C temperature limit – key facts

Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries have been calling for limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels since 2009 . We’ve created an information pool for material to help answer some key questions about the 1.5°C temperature goal in the run up to COP21:

  • Why 1.5°C? Science, impacts and risks.
  • What will it take to limit warming below 1.5°C?
  • What is needed in the Paris Agreement for 1.5°C?
 ©Photo by Vicky courtesy Flickr
©Photo by Vicky courtesy Flickr

Our areas of expertise include:

Development of new climate agreement
Climate Analytics works closely with LDCs and SIDS to support their participation in the UNFCCC negotiations and other multilateral climate negotiations and fora relevant to achieving a new climate agreement in 2015. In doing so, we aim to empower and enable the most vulnerable countries to have their special circumstances and concerns heard and reflected in the outcomes of the negotiation processes.

Assessment of INDCs
Climate Analytics partners with three other research organisations to produce the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent science-based assessment that tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries. In preparation for the adoption of a new global climate agreement in December 2015, the CAT is providing an up-to-date assessment and rating of submitted “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs). Periodically the CAT will assess the global consequences of the INDCs for global warming and the emissions gap between INDCs, policies and emissions levels needed to limit warming below 2oC.

Real-time assessment of options
We provide analyses, briefings and talking points for LDCs and SIDS negotiators on policy options under negotiation in real-time to enable effective participation in negotiations on core issues.

Latest

A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research.  
The growing momentum behind 1.5 degrees is a story of fast-breaking science, savvy politics and a change in tone in the climate debate — one that has focused increasing attention on the needs of the most vulnerable countries. Article quoting Climate Analytics CEO Bill Hare and Science Director Michiel Schaeffer.  

Publications

A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research. The analysis, written by a team of scientists who have published key research papers on the science, impacts and policy aspects of the 1.5˚C limit, is a centrepiece of a collection by Nature Climate Change, Nature Geoscience and Nature on 'Targeting 1.5°C'  
This document provides briefing points and explains why initial and successive 5 year commitment periods for all Parties are a necessary element of the new agreement to help ensure that the 1.5/2°C goal is met, and how a 10-year commitment period would in fact fail to provide the long-term stability and certainty that Parties seek. It steps through evidence from scientific, economic, regulatory and political perspectives.  
This document provides key points on risks to ecosystems, food security and sustainable development associated with 1.5°C warming. It also provides responses to arguments commonly made against 1.5°C and provides the scientific evidene for each point made.  
This briefing note outlines the scientific conditions under which warming can be limited to well below 2°C over the 21st century, and return to below 1.5°C by 2100. It provides a scientific overview of the science on some critical mitigation technologies, like bioenergy, carbon capture and storage, and their combination – BECCS. It also contains counter arguments to claims that 1.5°C scenarios undermine food security through including large scale bioenergy deployment. The considerations in this briefing are based on the findings of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), the 2014 UNEP Emissions Gap Report, the Report of the UNFCCC Structured Expert Dialogue (SED), as well as the recent scientific literature.  
Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: “holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C. This paper provides an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss- The results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. This article has been accepted.  

Projects

Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.  
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012