Climate Negotiations

SIDS and LDCs are the most vulnerable countries to climate change impacts. We provide negotiation support tailored to their specific circumstances and concerns.

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

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Henrike Doebert

Feature: 1.5°C temperature limit – key facts

Small Island Developing States and Least Developed Countries have been calling for limiting global temperature rise to below 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels since 2009 . We’ve created an information pool for material to help answer some key questions about the 1.5°C temperature goal in the run up to COP21:

  • Why 1.5°C? Science, impacts and risks.
  • What will it take to limit warming below 1.5°C?
  • What is needed in the Paris Agreement for 1.5°C?
 ©Photo by Vicky courtesy Flickr
©Photo by Vicky courtesy Flickr

Our areas of expertise include:

Development of new climate agreement
Climate Analytics works closely with LDCs and SIDS to support their participation in the UNFCCC negotiations and other multilateral climate negotiations and fora relevant to achieving a new climate agreement in 2015. In doing so, we aim to empower and enable the most vulnerable countries to have their special circumstances and concerns heard and reflected in the outcomes of the negotiation processes.

Assessment of INDCs
Climate Analytics partners with three other research organisations to produce the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), an independent science-based assessment that tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries. In preparation for the adoption of a new global climate agreement in December 2015, the CAT is providing an up-to-date assessment and rating of submitted “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs). Periodically the CAT will assess the global consequences of the INDCs for global warming and the emissions gap between INDCs, policies and emissions levels needed to limit warming below 2oC.

Real-time assessment of options
We provide analyses, briefings and talking points for LDCs and SIDS negotiators on policy options under negotiation in real-time to enable effective participation in negotiations on core issues.

Latest

Science underpinning the global treaty aiming to stop average temperatures rising more than 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels needs more research. Climate News Network's Alex Kirby in Climate Home on our latest research around the 1.5˚C long term temperature limit.  
A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research.  
Brexit unlikely to slow momentum towards global climate deal coming into force, with EU left to tackle complex negotiations with UK. Under a scenario published by Climate Analytics, a global network of policy specialists, 50 countries covering 53.28% of global emissions are likely to sign off the UN pact by the end of 2016.  

Publications

A new analysis of the scientific and policy aspects of the 1.5°C temperature limit in the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal has identified a number of important areas that require more scientific research. The analysis, written by a team of scientists who have published key research papers on the science, impacts and policy aspects of the 1.5˚C limit, is a centrepiece of a collection by Nature Climate Change, Nature Geoscience and Nature on 'Targeting 1.5°C'  
Following adoption of the Paris Agreement, a number of questions have been raised related to signature, ratification and entry into force of the Paris Agreement, some practical, some strategic. This briefing looks at issues that relate to the possibility of early entry into force, the status of Party INDCs both pre-ratification and post-ratification, protection of the Paris Agreement's 1.5 degree temperature limitation goal, and the implications of decision 1/CP.21 on the Paris Agreement's treatment of loss and damage.  
The term ‘climate neutrality’ is currently resonating in the climate policy arena and is included in the collective mitigation goal (Article 3.1) of the draft Paris Agreement. A close look at this relatively new and scientifically ill defined term and its potential implications reveals a fundamental risk that this term will be used to undermine efforts to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions and be used to introduce dangerous geo-engineering approaches into the climate regime.  
This document provides briefing points and explains why initial and successive 5 year commitment periods for all Parties are a necessary element of the new agreement to help ensure that the 1.5/2°C goal is met, and how a 10-year commitment period would in fact fail to provide the long-term stability and certainty that Parties seek. It steps through evidence from scientific, economic, regulatory and political perspectives.  
This document provides key points on risks to ecosystems, food security and sustainable development associated with 1.5°C warming. It also provides responses to arguments commonly made against 1.5°C and provides the scientific evidene for each point made.  

Projects

The "Climate Action Tracker" is an independent science-based assessment, which tracks the emission commitments and actions of countries.  
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.  
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012