Recent analysis about announcements made at COP26 showed the world could be on track for a 50% chance to limit end-of-century warming to 1.8°C. So why do we need to be cautious?
Emission reduction targets
Based on analysis of emission pathways consistent with long-term climate goals, we derive global and regional targets for reducing emissions, for example in 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2050.
This report identifies 40 indicators across key sectors that must transform to address the climate crisis, and assesses how current trends will impact how much work remains to be done by 2030 and 2050 to deliver a zero-carbon world in time. It also outlines the required shifts in supportive policies, innovations, strong institutions, leadership and social norms to unlock change.
In December 2020, the Federal Government projected Australia’s emissions would reach roughly 22% below 2005 levels by 2030 which falls short of its 26-28% Paris Agreement target. We anticipate the Federal Government will soon announce an increase in projected emissions reductions for 2030 under a business-as-usual scenario. This report reveals virtually none of the likely reductions are a result of the Federal Government’s own policy.
This report presents domestic emissions and energy mix pathways required to meet the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C goal for the EU27 and nine Member States: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, and Sweden, and assesses if their current 2030 climate targets are in line with these pathways.
This paper presents a set of scenarios that simulate different mitigation commitments made by G20 countries for 2030 and mid-century and the resulting impacts on global temperature rise. If all G20 members were to adopt mid-century net zero commitments and align their NDCs with a 1.5°C pathway, end-of-century global warming could be limited to 1.7°C.
Achieving net-zero emissions at the global level, as required to limit warming to 1.5 °C, means both rapid emissions reductions across all sectors as well as a scaling-up of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As a growing number of countries bring forward national net-zero targets, the questions of how much CDR each nation holds responsibility for, whether CDR transfers should be possible under the Paris Agreement market mechanisms, and how this might affect the years in which different countries should achieve net-zero, become increasingly important.
In this brief, we explore the direct employment impacts of a coal-to-renewable transition in South Korea in line with a Paris compatible coal phase out before 2030. We compare this with the projected outcomes under current policies.
The Paris Agreement commits all countries to take ambitious steps to guarantee a low carbon future. This requires individual national governments to submit more ambitious emission reduction targets. In support of this urgent need to translate global trajectories to be in line with the Paris Agreement, this project, founded by the IKEA Foundation, shows how a group of countries, across all regions and development spectrum can update their NDCs to be in line with the Paris climate goals.
The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. The project partners findings will be disseminated through a number of tools, events and products and by closely involving stakeholders and policy-makers, with the aim to support sustainable land use decision-making.
COP21 Results and Implications for Pathways and Policies for Low Emissions European Societies The Paris Agreement represents an important new strategic context for EU climate policy. Analysing the implications of this new context requires an interdisciplinary approach, combining analysis of the evolution of the international climate regime as well as of NDCs and their socio-economic implications.
Science and policy to assist and support SIDSs and LDCs to negotiate a strong international climate regime, enabling low carbon development and supporting adaptation needs.
Implemented under a collaborative framework, this project is designed to provide specific analytical, scientific and strategic information and support to strengthen the capacity of Least Developed Countries (LDCs). Project Period: 2011 - 2012
Climate Analytics provides analytical support to NGOs. Project Period: 2009