Carbon and emission budgets

To stabilise warming, CO2 emissions ultimately have to be reduced to zero. The faster this zero point is achieved, the lower the level at which warming stabilises. We explore the total cumulative emissions (budgets) consistent with long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels


Based on scenarios underlying the IPCC's 6th Assessment Report, in this paper we construct a suite of scenarios that combine the following elements: (a) two quantifications of a moral claim to the remaining carbon space by South Asia, and Africa, (b) a 'highest possible emission reduction' effort by developed regions, and (c) a corresponding range for other developing regions. Our findings raise important questions of perspectives on equity in the context of the Paris Agreement including on the critical importance of climate finance.  
Achieving net-zero emissions at the global level, as required to limit warming to 1.5 °C, means both rapid emissions reductions across all sectors as well as a scaling-up of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As a growing number of countries bring forward national net-zero targets, the questions of how much CDR each nation holds responsibility for, whether CDR transfers should be possible under the Paris Agreement market mechanisms, and how this might affect the years in which different countries should achieve net-zero, become increasingly important.  
This weekend the members of the G7 will meet in the UK, in a year that marks an important deadline for countries to bring forward stronger climate targets. All of the G7 governments, covering roughly half of global GDP and over a fifth of greenhouse gas emissions, have enhanced their targets in the last year. But are these countries and other major economies pulling their weight?