Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. This study shows the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compares them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming.
Our areas of expertise include:
- Emission reduction targets
- Carbon and emission budgets
- Mitigation costs
- Role of air pollutants
- Co-benefits
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We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.
Publications
Stopping black carbon will not buy time for global warming, new study shows
Air-pollution emission ranges consistent with the representative concentration pathwaysPeer reviewed
The fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project uses four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) that span the literature range of total anthropogenic radiative forcing, but not necessarily of each single forcing agent.
Contributions to Summary for Policy Makers and Chapter 6: Assessing Transformation Pathways, 2013 & 2014