Mitigation Scenarios and Pathways

 ©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics
©Henrike Doebert / Climate Analytics

We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.

Publications

At the UN climate summit COP26, governments made a collective commitment to bring forward 2030 targets this year that are in line with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal. This policy brief outlines six key policy recommendations for this June’s G7 summit that, if adopted, would demonstrate the ambition and leadership needed to keep the 1.5°C limit in sight and to maintain the momentum that was developed at COP26.  
Deutschland wird seine nationalen Ziele verstärken und geeignete Maßnahmen ergreifen müssen, um die Ziele des Pariser Klimaabkommens zu erreichen. Dies wird laut der Studie von Climate Analytics, im Auftrag von Agora Verkehrswende, erhebliche Anstrengungen im Verkehrssektor erfordern. Auch das bevölkerungsreichste Land der EU wird sich seiner Verantwortung stellen müssen.  
Climate change will be the greatest threat to humanity and global ecosystems in the coming years, and there is a pressing need to understand and communicate the impacts of warming, across the perspectives of the natural and social sciences. Hoegh-Guldberg et al. review the climate change–impact literature, expanding on the recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They provide evidence of the impacts of warming at 1°, 1.5°, and 2°C—and higher—for the physical system, ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods. The benefits of limiting climate change to no more than 1.5°C above preindustrial levels would outweigh the costs.  

Projects

The project aims to investigate how changes in land cover and land management can help to meet the mitigation and adaptation objectives of the Paris Agreement, as well as the Sustainable Development Goals. The project partners findings will be disseminated through a number of tools, events and products and by closely involving stakeholders and policy-makers, with the aim to support sustainable land use decision-making.