This briefing summarises the latest science on 1.5°C including from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the International Energy Agency and other key reports.
Our areas of expertise include:
- Emission reduction targets
- Carbon and emission budgets
- Mitigation costs
- Role of air pollutants
- Co-benefits
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We explore the greenhouse-gas emission reductions necessary to achieve long-term global climate goals, such as holding warming below 1.5 and 2°C warming relative to pre-industrial levels. Analysing emissions scenarios from energy-economic models and other sources with coupled carbon-cycle/climate models leads to globally “allowed” ranges of emissions for different greenhouse gases, air pollutants and sectors, as well as associated time- and pathway-dependent mitigation costs and technology portfolios.
Publications
This briefing calculates the cumulative CO2 emissions that Estonia could emit if it is to align with the internationally agreed 1.5°C limit in the Paris Agreement. It produces emissions pathways for Estonia by downscaling global cost-effective pathways to the national level.
This is the first study that puts together the total greenhouse gas implications of the entire Scarborough-Pluto project, including its associated and interlinked projects. The results show the emissions are significantly larger than either the company or the state government estimates indicate.
Achieving net-zero emissions at the global level, as required to limit warming to 1.5 °C, means both rapid emissions reductions across all sectors as well as a scaling-up of carbon dioxide removal (CDR). As a growing number of countries bring forward national net-zero targets, the questions of how much CDR each nation holds responsibility for, whether CDR transfers should be possible under the Paris Agreement market mechanisms, and how this might affect the years in which different countries should achieve net-zero, become increasingly important.
This weekend the members of the G7 will meet in the UK, in a year that marks an important deadline for countries to bring forward stronger climate targets.
All of the G7 governments, covering roughly half of global GDP and over a fifth of greenhouse gas emissions, have enhanced their targets in the last year. But are these countries and other major economies pulling their weight?
Germany will have to boost its national targets and implement appropriate measures if it is to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals, and this will place considerable demands on the transport sector, according to this study commissioned by Agora Verkehrswende. The EU’s most populous country will also have to support the bloc in increasing its climate action.
Deutschland wird seine nationalen Ziele verstärken und geeignete Maßnahmen ergreifen müssen, um die Ziele des Pariser Klimaabkommens zu erreichen. Dies wird laut der Studie von Climate Analytics, im Auftrag von Agora Verkehrswende, erhebliche Anstrengungen im Verkehrssektor erfordern. Auch das bevölkerungsreichste Land der EU wird sich seiner Verantwortung stellen müssen.
Projects
The project looks into the consequences of the Paris Agreement for planned and existing coal capacity, comparing existing and planned coal capacity for a set of key countries/regions.